Bitcoin Price: Powell Just Spoke and Jobs Report Drops April 3 – Here’s What Could Finally Move BTC

The Bitcoin price has been stuck between $65,000 and $75,000 since early February, and nothing has broken the range. Now there are two events that could ultimately force a move in either direction.

First up is Powell’s speech at Harvard on March 30, one of his last public appearances before his term ends on May 15. He said the Fed faces unusually high uncertainty, monetary tools cannot solve the oil-driven inflation problem, and that the US national debt is on an unsustainable path. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) barely budged on the comments, but what he didn’t say matters just as much: no hints about interest rate cuts or discussions of future policy actions.

The second is the March jobs report coming on April 3rd, which could be the event that actually moves the Bitcoin price. February’s number came in at negative 92,000 jobs – the worst monthly loss since December 2020 – so if March follows the same trend, rate cut expectations could change overnight. The report falls on Good Friday, when every stock and bond market in the country is closed, making crypto the only major market to respond in real time.

What did Powell say at Harvard and what does it mean for Bitcoin?

Powell’s Harvard appearance on March 30 was unwritten. It was a moderated conversation with an introductory economics class, and the outcome was that rates were not moving. He told students the Fed’s policy rate is in a good place to hold steady, confirming what everyone already suspected. No cuts are coming anytime soon as the Fed is content to wait and watch as the oil shock plays out.

The important thing for Bitcoin right now is what Powell said about supply shocks. He was direct and said that monetary instruments had no meaningful effect on them. This means that the Fed cannot solve the inflation problem oil above $100 and the Iran warand it’s not going to try.

Rates could also add another 0.5% to 1%, and Powell acknowledged the Fed has not made as much progress on inflation as he had hoped. For anyone waiting for a rate cut to push Bitcoin out of its range, Powell essentially said don’t hold your breath.

Powell also warned that the national debt was growing faster than the economy and called the path “unsustainable,” adding that delays in addressing it would not end well. Such a comment from the Fed chairman strengthens the case for Bitcoin as a hedge against long-term fiscal instability – but it does nothing for the short-term price, which is still stuck waiting for interest rate cuts that are not coming.

Why is Friday’s work reporting the biggest event for Bitcoin this week?

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Powell made it clear that the Fed is not going to move based on words – it needs data. And the most important piece of data between now and the next FOMC meeting on April 29 is the March Jobs Report, which falls on April 3 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. After February’s loss of 92,000 jobs, another weak month in March would give the Fed a much stronger reason to start cutting rates earlier than December — and that’s the one thing that could push Bitcoin out of the range it’s been stuck in.

The FactSet consensus calls for +57,000 jobs in Marchwhich would be a recovery, but still well below the pre-2026 average of around 180,000 per month. Much of February’s damage came from the Kaiser Permanente strike that took about 30,000 health care workers off the payroll, and those jobs should rebound in the March data.

If the number is above 75,000, rate cuts could be pushed out further and Bitcoin is likely to drift towards the bottom of its range near $63,000 to $65,000. But if it gets back below 30,000 or negative, rate cut expectations could change and Bitcoin could push towards $70,000 to $75,000.

What makes April 3 different from any other Job Report day is that it falls on Good Friday. The NYSE, Nasdaq and bond markets are all closed, which means Bitcoin and crypto will be the only major markets that react to the data in real time. Cash stock trading doesn’t resume until Monday, April 6, so if the number surprises in either direction, crypto could overshoot without the usual stock market anchor to stabilize price action.

What does this mean for Bitcoin’s price range?

Powell’s speech didn’t break the range, and it didn’t intend to — he deliberately avoided giving the market something to trade on. With his term ending on May 15 and no confirmed successor yet, the Fed heads into one of the most important data weeks of 2026 without clear leadership or direction. This leaves the Jobs Report on April 3 as the only event with enough weight to actually shift rate expectations and force Bitcoin out of the $65,000 to $75,000 range it has been in since February.

The data drops at 8:30 a.m. Eastern with no stock or bond market open to absorb the reaction. Crypto will price the number alone for nearly three full days before stock trading resumes on April 6. A weak report could trigger a rally that pushes BTC towards $75,000, while a strong one could send it retesting $63,000 to $65,000 support with no equity floor to catch it. Either way, April 3 marks the most volatile day for Bitcoin in weeks, and the job number will set the direction for the rest of the month.