Bitcoin Price Prediction If BTC Breaks Above $80,000

The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price has been stuck below $80,000 for the past three months. Every push to the $80K level has been rejected so far, with BTC pulling back when it gets above $79,000. Then in the early Singapore hours today, the $80K resistance was finally cracked, with BTC pushing past it to reach $80,500 – its highest level since the US-Iran war began.

Trump rejected Iran’s 14-point peace proposal late Sunday night, but announced “Project Freedom” – a US military operation to escort stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning Middle East time. The move pulled Brent crude oil back to around $107 from last Thursday’s $126 peak, again easing pressure on the crypto market.

Although the Bitcoin price briefly bounced back to $79,500, let’s see if BTC can convincingly break above $80,000 and hold it.

Bitcoin cleared $80,000 after Trump’s Iran response

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Trump posted on Truth Social Sunday afternoon that the US would launch “Project Freedom” Monday morning Middle East time – a military operation involving 15,000 service members and more than 100 aircraft to escort stranded merchant ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is reading this as Washington finally moving to break the blockade that has choked 20% of the world’s oil supply since the war began.

Hours later, when Asia opened, BTC pushed through $80,000. The Bitcoin price hit $80,529 in the early Singapore hours today, May 4. Brent crude, which had risen to $126 last Thursday, fell back to nearly $107.

Short sellers got crushed on Bitcoin’s way up. About $303 million in Bitcoin short positions have been liquidated over 24 hours, with $108 million of those shorts forced out in a single hour as BTC held above $80,000. Traders bet heavily against this break, and the moment the $80K wall was cracked, they had to buy back into a rising market.

The Bitcoin price has now pulled back to $79,500 as some of the heat has come out of the move. But for the first time in three months, BTC is trading to the right of $80,000.

Bitcoin hits $80,000, but on-chain data reveals a catch

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This is the first time Bitcoin released $80,000 since late January. But the price level is not the only line that matters. Pushing past $80K, BTC also regained its bull market support band – the moving average band traders look to tell if the market is bullish or bearish.

That group has limited every recovery effort for the past few months. The previous four rallies have all stalled below $79,000, which is well short of the group. Above now closes the structural shift that has been missing all year.

By pushing above $80,000, Bitcoin also cleared the True Market Average – the cost base for the average BTC holder. Anyone who bought and was underwater in the last six months is back at breakeven, removing much of the “sell the rally” pressure that dragged BTC back every time it tried to push higher.

But there is a catch. CryptoQuant’s April Report showed Bitcoin’s rally from $66,000 to $79,000 was driven entirely by continued futures demand, with spot buying actively contracting throughout the month. The rally was built on leverage rather than fresh capital coming in to buy actual coins.

The same pattern appeared at the start of the 2022 bear market, and what followed was a multi-month decline. The CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index fell from 50 to 40 over April, moving from neutral back into bullish territory. Unless spot demand turns positive in the coming weeks, leveraged traders will likely close their positions and send BTC back to the $75,000-$77,000 range.

Bitcoin price forecast for the rest of May

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The Bitcoin price can go three different ways from here, and which way it goes depends on the bulls stepping in to support the price.

Bull Forecast: $85,000–$100,000

If BTC closes above $82,000 – the 200-day moving average – the longer downtrend will be broken. This would make the $85,000 to $88,000 range the next target resistance and $100,000 as the larger target.

For that to happen, Bitcoin ETF inflows will need to build on Friday’s $630 million draw, Iran tensions will need to continue to ease, and the CLARITY Act will have to move in the Senate. With many traders still short of this break, a clean push above $82,000 will force them to buy back at higher prices and accelerate the move.

Base Forecast: $78,000–$83,500 Range

The base forecast is the most likely outcome, and Polymarket traders also bet that way. They give BTC at $85,000 by the end of the month a 47% chance, but only a 21% chance of clearing $90,000. It indicates BTC traded in the $78,000 to $83,500 range for most of May, hitting $82,000 a few times without breaking through.

Bitcoin’s April rally was built on leverage rather than strong buying, which fits this outcome – once the short squeeze runs its course, there will be no new demand left to push the BTC price higher.

Bear Forecast: $66,000–$73,500

If BTC rejects at $80,000 and the funding rate on perpetual futures turns negative, things could get ugly. A negative funding rate would mean traders pay to keep their long bets open, which usually forces them to bail out.

The first level to give will be $75,000, then $73,500 at the 50-day moving average. Below $73,500 there is an air pocket to $66,000 without major support, where BTC could fall if Iran talks collapse, oil rises back to $130, or ETF flows reverse.

The next 72 hours could decide whether Bitcoin holds $80,000

Bitcoin’s break above $80K is not yet confirmed, and the next 24 to 72 hours will likely tell us whether BTC can climb above it and hold. The data in the chain still shows leverage doing most of the work, so demand needs to come into focus before validating the move. Above $80,000, there is a closed CME futures gap at $84,500 that has acted as a magnetic level all year, and a sustained push higher could pull BTC straight there.

Two things could decide where the Bitcoin price goes from here. The first is the perp funding rate – if it turns negative if BTC tests $82,000, the rally will lose its main driver. The second is spot ETF flows on Monday and Tuesday. If the inflow from late last week extends further, BTC will get the real buy it needs to hold $80K. If they reverse, today’s break could end up looking like a false start.