Quantum computing threat to Bitcoin may arrive sooner than expected: report

A new quantum computing report has warned that the cryptocurrency industry may be running out of time to prepare for cryptographic attacks that could eventually threaten more than $2 trillion in digital assets.

According to “The State of Quantum” from Quantus, shared with crypto.news, recent breakthroughs in quantum hardware and error correction have compressed expectations of when cryptographically relevant quantum computers might emerge.

The report argued that the threat is no longer theoretical because the mathematical path to breaking elliptic curve cryptography, the system that secures Bitcoin and most blockchains, has been understood for decades.

Researchers behind the report pointed to a series of developments from Google, IBM and Quantinuum between 2024 and 2026 that they say have changed how experts see the timeline.

Among the most important was Google Quantum AI’s March 2026 paper, which estimated that Shor’s algorithm could break the secp256k1 elliptic curve used by Bitcoin with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits under certain hardware assumptions.

While the report acknowledged that no existing machine can currently break Bitcoin encryption, it argued that the estimated resource requirements have dropped sharply within a short period of time.

Quantus said three research papers released within about a year have reduced the projected quantum resources needed to attack elliptic curve cryptography by nearly an order of magnitude.

Quantum timelines and crypto exposure collide

At the same time, the report argued that cryptocurrencies face a problem that traditional Internet companies do not. Unlike centralized services that can silently update encryption standards through software patches, blockchains permanently expose public keys on public ledgers, leaving millions of addresses visible to future attacks.

The report describes this as a “harvest now, crack later” risk, where attackers can collect blockchain data today and wait for sufficiently powerful quantum systems to emerge later.

Another problem highlighted in the report involves lost Bitcoin wallets. Quantus estimated that between 2.3 million and 3.7 million Bitcoins are likely inaccessible because owners have lost their keys, including coins believed to belong to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.

Since those wallets cannot migrate to quantum-proof addresses, the report warned that they could become permanent targets once quantum attacks become practical.

“The only practical solution is to set a hard deadline for account owners to migrate their tokens to quantum-safe accounts, after which all tokens held in vulnerable accounts will be permanently frozen,” said Auryn Macmillan, co-founder of Gnosis Guild, in comments included in the report.

Elsewhere, the report argued that much of the tech industry has already begun preparing for post-quantum cryptography. NIST finalized post-quantum encryption standards including ML-DSA, ML-KEM and SLH-DSA in August 2024, while companies such as Google, Signal, Apple and Cloudflare have already begun to deploy post-quantum protection with migration targets stretching to 2029 and 2030.

Bitcoin Migration Debate Gains Urgency

Meanwhile, the report said the crypto industry remains divided on how to handle migration. Bitcoin’s transition has been described as particularly difficult due to governance coordination, scaling issues and the challenge of replacing existing signature systems without introducing new vulnerabilities.

JUST IN: Ripple sets 2028 deadline to make XRP ledger quantum proof, declaring quantum threat has moved from theoretical to credible pic.twitter.com/fIo9BV5hOT

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) April 21, 2026

As previously reported by crypto.news, Dan Boneh, a Stanford cryptographer and co-author of Google Quantum AI’s March 2026 paper, recently warned that rushing Bitcoin into a post-quantum migration could create greater dangers than the current threat itself.

In a May interview highlighted by Isabel Foxen Duke, Boneh warned that “a hasty transition to post-quantum[…]is more likely to cause a catastrophic error than we are to be attacked by a quantum computer.”

Nevertheless, Boneh argued that preparation cannot be ignored. According to the interview, he supported a gradual migration to post-quantum signatures and hybrid cryptographic systems rather than a sudden replacement of Bitcoin’s existing elliptic curve architecture.

Hardware limitations also remain a concern for wallet providers trying to support larger post-quantum cryptographic schemes. Keystone CEO Aaron Chen said in the report that algorithms like ML-DSA-87 put significant pressure on hardware wallets due to memory and computing limitations.

“For a hardware wallet, the device is typically MCU-based, which means its hardware resources are inherently limited,” Chen said in the report, adding that preserving user experience while supporting post-quantum standards “poses additional challenges for hardware wallet development.”

Elsewhere in the report, Matt Swayne, chief content officer at Resonance, argued that the crypto industry may be underestimating how fast the technology is advancing.

“We often hear about quantum hype, but we also need to be aware that the quantum industry is underselling its progress,” Swayne said.

Quantus concluded that migration delays could have financial and political consequences once quantum capabilities become viable.

According to the report, preparing too early mainly creates operational inconvenience and larger transaction sizes, while preparing too late risks fund losses, institutional panic and regulatory intervention after quantum attacks.

JUST IN: Natalie Brunell Destroys Bitcoin Quantum FUD Live on Fox. State hardware does not exist, threat is not imminent, and BTC will upgrade as a solved problem pic.twitter.com/jecJ1zV5fJ

— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) May 25, 2026