Bitcoin’s recent recovery was driven by futures trading, not new coin appreciation, experts say

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Bitcoin’s April rally was fueled by leveraged futures trading, data analysts said, as market demand and ETF investment flows remained weak.

A 12.7% rise was Bitcoin’s biggest monthly gain since April 2025, but stubborn inflation figures have hampered the outlook for cryptocurrency gains. Traders are now pricing the chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June at just 2.5%, according to CME data.

Leveraged price gains are at risk of correction

Perpetual futures trading contracts were the driver of the rally, according to media reports, citing a research note from CryptoQuant.

As futures trading continues to play a growing role in Bitcoin’s price movements, some active traders are investigating firms such as Apex Trader Funding, which offers futures traders the opportunity to qualify for funded trading accounts after passing an evaluation.

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Underperformance in the Coinbase Premium, weakness in spot demand and growth in perpetual futures bets were signs of a relief rally, CryptoQuant analysts reportedly said.

Moreno added that these types of leverage moves can be “self-limiting” as spot demand growth is needed to support the increased price level.

ETF investments remain under pressure

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $630.4 million on Wednesday, the worst day of outflows in more than three months, after stubborn inflation readings dampened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Data from Farside Investors showed that BlackRock’s ( NYSE:BLK ) iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( NYSE:IBIT ) was the worst hit, with $284.7 million in redemptions, marking a fifth straight day of negative flows from the fund.

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Read next: One futures valuation can unlock access to significantly more buying power – see how Apex Trader Funding works

April’s 1.4% jump in consumer inflation was the biggest increase since a 1.7% move in March 2022, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. The latest results cut the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its June meeting to just 2.5% on May 14, down from 3.6% a week earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Bitcoin ETF flows have struggled since October when President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on China, leading to the largest liquidation of leveraged positions in the currency’s history. The resulting volatility reversed strong inflows that drove Bitcoin to a new record high above $120,000 in the same month.

USbitcoin funds attracted $3.29 billion in March and April, but that was not enough to offset $6.38 billion in outflows from November 2025 and February, CoinDesk said.

Despite the recent price bounce, cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen is cautious about the short-term setup. In a YouTube presentation on May 11, he warned investors that the price was approaching the 200-day moving average. That level provided stubborn resistance during previous bear market rallies in 2018 and 2019, Cowen said.

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