With mock Bitcoin ETFs approved the same year the halving is set to take place, many newcomers to the space may be wondering: what is the Bitcoin halving? This is a common question among those who want to learn more about the Bitcoin protocol. Expected to be the most important event in Bitcoin’s history, the 2024 halving is expected to happen sometime on or around April 13.
Here we will cover the basics of how the Bitcoin Halving works, what the Bitcoin Halving is, why it is happening, and what it could mean for markets this year and beyond.
#BTC
4 Phases of the Bitcoin Halving
1. Pre-Halfing Rally
About 42 days left until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024
And ~60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur (light blue)
History has repeated itself in this regard
Now Bitcoin is about… pic.twitter.com/UQ8Klh6EfH
04 March 2024
Understanding the Bitcoin Halving
Before we look at the potential impact of the 2024 halving, let’s discuss how the Bitcoin halving works.
Bitcoin operates on a deflationary model, where the reward for mining new blocks is halved every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, a process known as the “halving.” This event is significant because it reduces the rate at which new bitcoin is generated, thereby limiting the supply. Bitcoin is the only asset in human history that has a fixed supply that never increases, making it the hardest currency ever known.
This aspect of the protocol cannot be changed due to the decentralized distribution of nodes. For the supply limit of Bitcoin to be increased, the majority of nodes would have to agree to such a change. While this may be possible in theory, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where this becomes reality. Thousands of independent node operators around the world will have to agree to impoverish themselves and reduce the value of Bitcoin as a whole.
The 2024 halving will reduce the block reward from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 bitcoin. Historically, each halving event has been followed by a significant increase in bitcoin’s price, although past performance is no guarantee of future results. However, the anticipation alone can lead to increased trading volume and price volatility, as we have seen in recent weeks.
Contrary to what some market commentators say, the halving can never really be priced in until it happens. This is because much of the selling pressure in the market comes from miners, who need to sell coins to cover their operating expenses. After the halving, this selling pressure is reduced by 50%, as the miner’s income drops by the same amount.
What Happens to Miners After the Bitcoin Halving?
Miners may struggle after the halving as they see a significant reduction in income. Larger, public mining companies may have a lifeline by accessing capital markets for further investment. In the absence of a rapid increase in the Bitcoin price, some smaller miners may be forced to close.
As a result, the network’s hash rate tends to drop for a time after the halving. This then leads to a difficult downward adjustment, which may eventually allow more miners to come back online.
If you’re looking for signs that this #Bitcoin bull market is different, look no further. 👀#BTC sits at its peak BEFORE the Fed started cutting rates and BEFORE the halving.
Completely unprecedented.
Bullish OFF.
04 March 2024
The Impact of the Bitcoin Halving
This year’s halving may be the most important halving event in Bitcoin’s history. There are several converging factors that were not present during previous halving cycles. Some of these include:
The rise of mock Bitcoin ETFs; increased regulatory clarity around Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and exchanges; a purge of many bad actors from the previous cycle (think FTX, Celsius, Voyager, etc.); potential nation-state adoption of bitcoin (El Salvador) and rumors of other, larger countries); and, corporate adoption of bitcoin (microstrategy, other public Bitcoin companies).
In the past, the halving has been an important event for both Bitcoin’s price and the industry as a whole, even in the absence of the above variables. It goes without saying that this time could be astronomical given the cumulative effect of these new developments.
Additionally, because retail investors can now gain exposure to bitcoin through ETFs, there could be ripple effects throughout the financial system. How that might take shape is anyone’s guess.
TOM LEE: “I think #Bitcoin is making a beeline back to its long-term trendline, which is likely to be $82,000 in the near term, $150,000 before year-end” 👀
pic.twitter.com/RBw5LqaMcc
March 5, 2024
A few of the more certain impacts of the halving and associated bull market include:
an increase in crypto transactions. Merchants that accept cryptocurrency as payment tend to see an increase in purchases as holders look for ways to make a profit; increased trading volume. It can be so extreme that exchanges experience problems. For example, Coinbase suffered an outage on February 28 that resulted in users seeing a “0” balance in their accounts for a time as the Bitcoin price quickly shot up to $64,000; renewed investment and rent in the crypto space. Bitcoin and blockchain-related companies tend to do a lot of hiring during this time, and investors want to fund more startups; and speculation and market sentiment. Not surprisingly, market sentiment tends to become euphoric, and speculation in Bitcoin and altcoins can reach extreme levels. The legendary volatility of the asset class shows its full potential during this time.
And most entertaining of all, the creation of new Bitcoin-related memes tends to skyrocket during this period.
Stay tuned on social media for more on the topic.
Bitcoin Halving Conclusion
The Bitcoin halving is a pivotal event, which occurs approximately every four years and reduces the rate at which new bitcoin comes online. As we approach the 2024 halving, there is much anticipation for its potential impact on Bitcoin’s price and the wider industry.
With the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased regulatory clarity and growing adoption by both nations and corporations, this halving could be more significant than ever before. While the exact outcomes remain uncertain, past halving events have historically led to increased trading volume, market volatility and renewed investment in the crypto space. As we navigate through this exciting period, investors may want to stay informed and prepared for potential opportunities and challenges ahead.
Disclaimer for Uncirculars, with a Touch of Personality:
While we love diving into the exciting world of crypto here at Uncirculars, remember that this post, and all our content, is purely for your information and exploration. Think of it as your crypto compass, pointing you in the right direction to do your own research and make informed decisions.
No legal, tax, investment, or financial advice should be inferred from these pixels. We’re not fortune tellers or stockbrokers, just passionate crypto enthusiasts sharing our knowledge.
And just like that rollercoaster ride in your favorite DeFi protocol, past performance isn’t a guarantee of future thrills. The value of crypto assets can be as unpredictable as a moon landing, so buckle up and do your due diligence before taking the plunge.
Ultimately, any crypto adventure you embark on is yours alone. We’re just happy to be your crypto companion, cheering you on from the sidelines (and maybe sharing some snacks along the way). So research, explore, and remember, with a little knowledge and a lot of curiosity, you can navigate the crypto cosmos like a pro!
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