Carl Runefelt (27) is the host of The Moon, a YouTube channel with 544,000 subscribers. His videos are all about bitcoin, altcoins and technical analysis of cryptos.
He is also the co-founder and chief marketing officer of Kasta, a company proposing a cryptocurrency that will offer an input with a plan to introduce a debit card for transactions. It has not announced a token sale.
He first got into crypto in 2017 by investing in bitcoin.
“The reason I started with bitcoin was because I was already heavily invested in physical gold and silver,” Runefelt said. “In the years before that, I did a lot of research about the financial system, about the monetary system, and about the US dollar, the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world. And in my opinion, it seemed like a very old and bad system, a rather corrupt system too.”
He said he thought gold and silver were the alternatives to fiat until he heard about bitcoin, which he believes is a digitally superior choice for three main reasons.
First, bitcoin is scarcer than gold because there will only ever be 21 million tokens, giving it a hard cap. Second, it is more easily divided into smaller parts known as satoshis. And third, it is more easily transferable, allowing holders to move millions and even billions of dollars worth of it with low transaction fees.
Runefelt argued that the US dollar and other fiat currencies have lost value over time, contrary to their function as a store of value. By some estimates, the purchasing power of $1 in 1920 is equivalent to nearly $14 today due to inflation. And while bitcoin doesn’t have a long track record, its proponents see its limited supply as a reason why it will better retain its value over time.
Bitcoin recently had a sharp price correction: in early November it touched $70,000 before falling by around 34% within a month.
Regardless of bitcoin’s volatility, Runefelt believes it will have a quick comeback, he said. After bitcoin broke a key support line at $53,000, a sharp correction brought it to $48,000, and it is likely to trade near this price for the next two to three months before an increase, he said.
“Usually when we see a big correction like this with big volume, that means buyers need time to sort of get the momentum back,” Runefelt said. “So we’re most likely going to consolidate and not go bullish for quite some time.”
He estimated that once bitcoin breaks back above $53,000, it could climb by as much as $100,000 in three or four weeks. And Runefelt believes that bitcoin could be at around $300,000 by the end of next year; past cycles suggest that would be the most likely scenario, he said.
“The trend is your friend for bitcoin,” Runefelt said. “And the trend for 13 years now would suggest that bitcoin should get to around $300,000 and then go into a three-year bear market.”
If bitcoin rises that high, it will confirm the prediction of Runefelt and others, including Citigroup’s Thomas Fitzpatrick and crypto consultant Michael van de Poppe. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood went even higher, with a long-term call of $500,000. But conflicting views abound, driven by concerns about regulation and whether cryptos are in a bubble.
The $300,000 projection is based on bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, represented in the supply-to-flow graph that shows the number of years needed to reach the current supply at the current production rate. Bitcoin’s price has tended to rise by that number.
Altcoin season
Altcoins usually rise shortly after bitcoin peaks, a trend commonly referred to as altcoin season. Many crypto investors are watching bitcoin’s price action and expect it to play out again. But Runefelt doesn’t think altcoins will follow the same pattern.
“We’ve already seen altcoins rally very, very strongly in the last few months. I think we’re going to continue to see that,” Runefelt said. “I think the likely scenario is that we will continue to see altcoins go bullish before bitcoin tops out.”
He thinks that because altcoins have already rallied hard, they will correct what bitcoin is doing at the same time – but more steeply and faster.
Runefelt said that while he has a large altcoin portfolio and even invests in pre-sales for altcoins, he sticks to those backed by strong projects in which he personally believes.
Ethereum is one of his top picks because it has the largest network effect relative to other platforms.
He said he also holds binance coins and swissborg because they are exchanges with daily active users. Regardless of whether we are in a bull or bear market, they tend to hold their value compared to other altcoin projects with investors weaving in and out of positions trying to make a quick buck, he said.
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