Yesterday, the US Department of Defense (DoD) released its annual report on Chinese military power. The 2021 report demonstrates the growing challenge China poses to US interests in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. China’s growing nuclear arsenal has received most of the media attention. Under the headlines, however, is an approach in which China seeks to harness emerging technologies and innovative operational concepts – for both conventional and strategic operations – to become a leading military through an approach described as “intelligent” warfare. According to the report, China is “seeking to dominate technologies associated with the Fourth Industrial Revolution” (p. 145) because this will help China become a world-class military. Below, we outline critical aspects of China’s military modernization efforts referenced in the report, focusing particularly on developments related to defense innovation and emerging technologies.
China links emerging technology leadership with military capabilities
China believes that emerging technologies will shape and increase the speed of warfare, meaning that future military success will require forces that are “mechanized, computerized, and intelligent” (p. 89). The term “intelligentized” describes “the PRC’s concept of future warfare based on emerging and disruptive technologies, especially AI” (p. 146). It includes intelligent technologies, systems and operational concepts such as “warfare of attrition through intelligent swarms, cross-domain mobile warfare, AI-based space confrontation and cognitive control operations,” which facilitate information processing and decision-making on the battlefield.
More about:
China
Defense and Security
Defense technology
Technology and Innovation
US Department of Defense
China is also updating its doctrine and warfare plans to include these capabilities. China’s Academy of Military Science (AMS) has a mandate to ensure “that the PLA’s warfighting theory and doctrine fully capitalize on disruptive technologies such as AI and autonomous systems” (p. 148). By emphasizing emerging technologies, China aims to become a “global innovation superpower” (p. 145).
These intelligent capabilities are directly related to China’s potential pursuit of its strategic interests—namely, capturing Taiwan. Although details are limited in the report, it says: “In 2020, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced a new milestone for PLA modernization in 2027, broadly understood as the modernization of the PLA’s capabilities to to be a system of systems for intelligent network warfare. If realized, the PLA’s 2027 modernization goals could provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency” (p. I).
China’s Strategy for Achieving Defense Technology Leadership
China’s mechanism for achieving defense technology leadership, according to the report, remains civil-military fusion. It is China’s attempt to link technological advances in the private sector with its military-industrial base. Both US and Chinese officials have argued that key technologies that will shape the future of warfare, including artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, quantum and biotechnology, are fundamentally dual-use (or general purpose). The private sector drives innovation around the world. For China, the connection between the private and public sectors will help determine future technological leadership. As the report describes: “Under Beijing’s MCF strategy, the PLA seeks to exploit China’s achievements in the private sector to advance its force modernization plans” (p. 147). The report also discusses other Chinese technology leadership initiatives, such as foreign direct investment to acquire technology, talent recruitment, academic cooperation for research and development, and illegal acquisition through espionage.
China’s priority areas for defense investments in emerging technologies
The report highlights (p. 148) specific emerging technologies that China is actively pursuing and illustrates their potential military applications, as the chart below shows:
Within the AI and advanced robotics area highlighted in the graphic, an ongoing question is where and how militaries will use machine learning. The report outlines Chinese investments in machine learning for areas including tactical and strategic decision support and AI-enabled wargaming. The report also describes continued Chinese investments in autonomous air, ground and naval systems, some with limited AI capabilities, and the use of AI for social media analysis and propaganda. The report also lays out basic and applied research priorities for China in the military AI space moving forward, such as “brain-inspired software and hardware, human-machine teamwork, swarming, and decision-making” (p. 146).
More about:
China
Defense and Security
Defense technology
Technology and Innovation
US Department of Defense
More broadly, the above technologies demonstrate the military and economic areas China is prioritizing. China’s heavy research expenditures and its “focus on technological independence and indigenous innovation” through policies such as Made in China 2025 and China Standards 2035 have “placed the PRC at, or near, the forefront of many scientific fields”—which many in the United States (p.146).
The report highlights specific advances China has made in these domains in 2020, such as its allocation of approximately $85 million to AI research; its plans to extend its “2,000 km quantum-secure communications ground line” connecting Beijing and Shanghai to other cities and to create a global, satellite-enabled version by 2030; and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s initial fielding of the DF-17, a hypersonic glide vehicle (pp. 60,146). The report refers to cyber elsewhere – as a more mature capability that is already better integrated into the PLA.
Potential pitfalls in China’s military development
The report underscores how China is modernizing and advancing its military, and how the current Chinese regime views defense technology and innovation leadership as a critical pillar supporting their effort to create world-class warfighting capabilities. Specifically, China views its ability to harness and leverage emerging and disruptive technologies such as AI as critical to its ability to achieve strategic goals, such as taking Taiwan. This report emphasizes that the DoD is aware of and concerned about these initiatives, which appear to be systematic, well-resourced, and clearly delineated. While the report refers to these technologies, and how China plans to develop them, it lacks specific details on how the People’s Liberation Army will use technological breakthroughs. Questions also remain about China’s ability to operate these capabilities in combination, as the simultaneous integration of emerging technologies and traditional operations will be organizationally challenging. So, as Chinese military power continues to grow, there is uncertainty about what role emerging technologies will play in future conflicts, and when.
Disclaimer for Uncirculars, with a Touch of Personality:
While we love diving into the exciting world of crypto here at Uncirculars, remember that this post, and all our content, is purely for your information and exploration. Think of it as your crypto compass, pointing you in the right direction to do your own research and make informed decisions.
No legal, tax, investment, or financial advice should be inferred from these pixels. We’re not fortune tellers or stockbrokers, just passionate crypto enthusiasts sharing our knowledge.
And just like that rollercoaster ride in your favorite DeFi protocol, past performance isn’t a guarantee of future thrills. The value of crypto assets can be as unpredictable as a moon landing, so buckle up and do your due diligence before taking the plunge.
Ultimately, any crypto adventure you embark on is yours alone. We’re just happy to be your crypto companion, cheering you on from the sidelines (and maybe sharing some snacks along the way). So research, explore, and remember, with a little knowledge and a lot of curiosity, you can navigate the crypto cosmos like a pro!
UnCirculars – Cutting through the noise, delivering unbiased crypto news
