What is the head and shoulders pattern?
A head and shoulders pattern is used in technical analysis. This is a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The pattern appears as a baseline with three peaks, where the outer two are close in height, and the middle is the highest.
The head and shoulders pattern forms when a stock’s price rises to a high and then falls back to the base of the previous up move. Then the price rises above the previous peak to form the “head” and then falls back to the original base. Finally, the stock price peaks again at around the level of the first high of the formation before falling back.
The head and shoulders pattern is considered one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns. It is one of several top patterns that indicate with varying degrees of accuracy that an uptrend is nearing its end.
Key takeaways
Understandthe head and shoulders pattern
A head and shoulders pattern has four components:
After long bullish trends, the price rises to a peak and then falls to form a trough. The price rises again to form a second high significantly above the initial high and falls again. The price rises a third time, but only to the first peak level, before it declines again. The neckline, drawn at the two troughs or peaks (inverted).
The first and third peaks are the shoulders, and the second peak forms the head. The line connecting the first and second trough is called the neckline.
Inverted head and shoulders
The opposite of a head and shoulders chart is the inverse head and shoulders, also called a head and shoulders bottom. This is reversed with the head and shoulders bottom used to predict reversals in downtrends. This pattern is identified when the price action of a security meets the following characteristics:
The price falls to a trough, then rises The price falls below the previous trough, then the price rises again, but not as far as the second trough Once the final trough is made, the price goes up to the resistance (the neckline) found near the top of the previous cribs.
An inverted head and shoulders pattern is also a reliable indicator, indicating that a downtrend is about to reverse into an uptrend. In this case, the share price reaches three consecutive lows, separated by temporary rallies.
Of these, the second trough is the lowest (the head), and the first and third are slightly shallower (the shoulders). The final rally after the third dip indicates that the bearish trend has reversed, and prices are likely to continue to rise upwards.
What does the head and shoulders pattern tell you?
The head and shoulders pattern indicates that a reversal is possible. Traders believe that three sets of peaks and valleys, with a larger peak in the middle, means that a stock’s price will begin to decline. The neckline represents the point at which bearish traders begin selling.
The pattern also indicates that the new downtrend is likely to continue until the right shoulder is broken—where prices move higher than the prices at the right peak.
Pros and cons of the head and shoulders pattern
Experienced traders identify this easily
Defined profit and risk
Large market movements can be profited from
Can be used in all markets
Novice traders may miss it
Large stop loss distances possible
Unfavorable risk-to-reward possible
Benefits explained
Experienced traders identify it easily: The pattern is very recognizable to an experienced trader. Defined profit and risk: Short and long entry levels and stop distance can be clearly defined with confirmation openings and closes. Large market movements can be benefited from: The time frame for ‘ A head and shoulders pattern is quite long, so a market can move significantly from entry to closing price. Can be used in all markets: The pattern can be used in forex and stock trading.
While traders agree that the pattern is a reliable indicator, there is no guarantee that the trend will reverse as indicated.
Disadvantages explained
Novice traders may miss this: The head and shoulders pattern may not appear with a flat neckline; it can be skewed, which can throw off new traders. Large stop loss distances possible: Large downward movement over long time frames can result in a large stop distance.Neckline may appear to be moving: If price pulls back, the neckline may be retested, confusing some traders.
What does a head and shoulders pattern tell you?
The head and shoulders chart is said to depict a bullish to bearish trend reversal and indicates that an uptrend is nearing its end. Investors consider it one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns.
How reliable is a head and shoulders pattern?
The most common entry point is a breakout of the neckline, with a stop above (market above) or below (market below) the right shoulder. The profit target is the difference between the high and low with the pattern added (market bottom) or subtracted (market top) from the breakout price. The system is not perfect, but it provides a method to trade the markets based on logical price movements.
Can Head and Shoulders Turn Bullish?
An inverted head and shoulders, also called a “head and shoulders bottom,” is similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but in reverse, with the head and shoulders top used to predict reversals in downtrends. This is a bearish-to-bullish indicator.
What is the opposite of a head and shoulders pattern?
The inverse head and shoulders pattern is the opposite of the head and shoulders, indicating a reversal from a bearish trend to a bullish trend.
The Bottom Line
The head and shoulders is a pattern used by traders to identify price reversals. A lumpy head and shoulders has three peaks, with the middle one reaching higher than the other two. This indicates a reversal of an uptrend.
A bullish head and shoulders has three troughs, with the middle one reaching lower than the other two. This indicates a reversal of a downtrend.
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