• Latest
  • Trending
  • All
  • Trading & Investing
  • Strategies & Techniques
  • Risk Management & Portfolio Allocation
  • Technical Analysis Tools & Indicators
  • Fundamental Analysis & Research
  • Blockchain Technology
  • DeFi & NFTs
possible scenarios after the halving

possible scenarios after the halving

June 5, 2024
556 million dollars into the inflow of Bitcoin ETF signals is a major shift in investor sentiment

556 million dollars into the inflow of Bitcoin ETF signals is a major shift in investor sentiment

June 12, 2025
Long and short positions in crypto, explained

Long and short positions in crypto, explained

June 11, 2025
SEI pricing forecast 2025: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish?

SEI pricing forecast 2025: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish?

May 29, 2025
Market share of centralized crypto exchanges, according to trading volume

Market share of centralized crypto exchanges, according to trading volume

May 27, 2025
Buyer and Seller Behavior: The Fundamental of Bitcoin Analyze

Buyer and Seller Behavior: The Fundamental of Bitcoin Analyze

May 25, 2025
Тор-10 best crypto indicators to learn

Тор-10 best crypto indicators to learn

May 25, 2025
The Ultimate Crypto Tools Pack – Part 2

The Ultimate Crypto Tools Pack – Part 2

May 24, 2025
Stx bullish recovery to continue

Stx bullish recovery to continue

May 24, 2025
Japan’s central bank digital currency should go big, not go home

Japan’s central bank digital currency should go big, not go home

May 23, 2025
What is it and 5 ways to avoid it

What is it and 5 ways to avoid it

May 23, 2025
X spaces repeat with bluhale

X spaces repeat with bluhale

May 5, 2025
Build Meowverse in Telegram Play-to-Aarn Mini Game

Build Meowverse in Telegram Play-to-Aarn Mini Game

April 4, 2025
  • Home
  • Trading & Investing
    • Risk Management & Portfolio Allocation
    • Strategies & Techniques
    • Fundamental Analysis & Research
    • Technical Analysis Tools & Indicators
  • Crypto News & Analysis
    • Bitcoin
    • Market Overview & Trends
    • Altcoins
    • Technical Analysis & Charting
  • DeFi & NFTs
    • Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
    • Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)
    • Exchange Hacks & Security Breaches
    • Wallet Hacking & Phishing Attacks
  • Blockchain Technology
    • Supply Chain & Logistics Solutions
    • Enterprise Adoption & Applications
    • Healthcare & Medical Innovations
    • Energy & Sustainability Initiatives
Friday, June 27, 2025
  • Login
UnCirculars
  • Home
    • Home – Layout 1
    • Home – Layout 2
    • Home – Layout 3
    • Home – Layout 4
    • Home – Layout 5
  • Crypto News & Analysis
    • All
    • Adoption & Use Cases
    • Altcoins
    • Bitcoin
    • Market Overview & Trends
    • On-Chain Data & Metrics
    • Security & Scams
    • Technical Analysis & Charting
    556 million dollars into the inflow of Bitcoin ETF signals is a major shift in investor sentiment

    556 million dollars into the inflow of Bitcoin ETF signals is a major shift in investor sentiment

    Long and short positions in crypto, explained

    Long and short positions in crypto, explained

    SEI pricing forecast 2025: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish?

    SEI pricing forecast 2025: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish?

    Market share of centralized crypto exchanges, according to trading volume

    Market share of centralized crypto exchanges, according to trading volume

    Buyer and Seller Behavior: The Fundamental of Bitcoin Analyze

    Buyer and Seller Behavior: The Fundamental of Bitcoin Analyze

    Тор-10 best crypto indicators to learn

    Тор-10 best crypto indicators to learn

    The Ultimate Crypto Tools Pack – Part 2

    The Ultimate Crypto Tools Pack – Part 2

    Stx bullish recovery to continue

    Stx bullish recovery to continue

    Japan’s central bank digital currency should go big, not go home

    Japan’s central bank digital currency should go big, not go home

    What is it and 5 ways to avoid it

    What is it and 5 ways to avoid it

    • Bitcoin
    • Altcoins
    • Market Overview & Trends
    • Technical Analysis & Charting
    • On-Chain Data & Metrics
    • Adoption & Use Cases
    • Security & Scams
    • Opinion & Predictions
  • Blockchain Technology
    • Enterprise Adoption & Applications
    • Supply Chain & Logistics Solutions
    • Healthcare & Medical Innovations
    • Energy & Sustainability Initiatives
    • Gaming & Metaverse Infrastructure
    • Web3 Development & Decentralization
    • DAO & Governance Protocols
    • Scalability & Interoperability Solutions
    • Privacy & Security Enhancements
  • Trading & Investing
    • Strategies & Techniques
    • Risk Management & Portfolio Allocation
    • Technical Analysis Tools & Indicators
    • Fundamental Analysis & Research
    • Market Psychology & Sentiment
    • Crypto Tax Implications
    • Institutional Investment Landscape
  • DeFi & NFTs
    • Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
    • Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)
  • Regulation & Policy
    • Global Regulatory Landscape
    • SEC, CFTC, and Government Actions
    • Tax Implications & Reporting
    • KYC/AML Compliance & Standards
    • Institutional Investment Guidelines
    • Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)
    • Stablecoin Regulation & Oversight
    • Self-Regulatory Organizations (SROs)
  • Security & Scams
    • Exchange Hacks & Security Breaches
    • Wallet Hacking & Phishing Attacks
    • Rug Pulls & Exit Scams
    • Malware & Ransomware Threats:
    • User Education & Best Practices
    • Regulatory Frameworks & Protections
    • Insurance & Recovery Options
  • Community & Culture
    • Crypto Influencers & Thought Leaders
    • Social Media & Online Communities
    • Memes & Internet Culture
    • Crypto Art & Music
    • Events & Conferences
    • Adoption in Developing Countries
  • Opinion & Education
    • Expert Commentaries & Predictions
    • Beginner Guides & Tutorials
    • Glossary of Crypto Terms
    • Research Papers & Whitepapers
    • Podcasts & Video Interviews
    • Book Reviews & Recommendations
No Result
View All Result
UnCirculars
No Result
View All Result
Home Crypto News & Analysis On-Chain Data & Metrics

possible scenarios after the halving

by Dr. Jane Chen
June 5, 2024
in On-Chain Data & Metrics
0
possible scenarios after the halving
491
SHARES
1.4k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter


On April 20, the fourth halving in Bitcoin’s history took effect, which saw the block reward halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Usually the halving creates conditions for an increase in the price of the currency on the market, or at least that is what has happened in recent years.

What are the post-halving price predictions for Bitcoin in this cycle?

SPOILER: there is someone who assumes 150,000 USD

All the details below.

Bitcoin Price Prediction After the Recent Halving: Is the Path Clear to $150,000?

Last week, Bitcoin hit a new local low at 56,500 USD, breaking a divergent chart structure that began at the beginning of March 2024, then quickly regained the points lost in early May and returned above the price of 64,000 USD.

The canonical quadrennial event of the reduction of new issuances of the network, known in jargon as “halving”, did not immediately bring the desired effect of the community, especially considering the difficult prospects of the crypto that amid important geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic tensions.

The result, unexpected by most forecasts, was a 21.7% pullback since the start of April. This bearish move is now the heaviest of this cycle, surpassing the September 2023 correction.

Indeed, the decline in recent days was accentuated by the increase in the labor cost index in the United States and the announcement by the Federal Reserve to continue to fight inflation without starting a quantitative easing policy that would reduce interest rates on government bonds will involve (possibly postponed to September)

Through it all, we also saw the launch of the Hong Kong Bitcoin spot ETFs, with data initially disappointing expectations due to low volumes recorded, which were later contradicted by statistics on the first day of trade inflows showing inflows (seed capital) of $292 million.

49.7% probability of a rate cut to 500-525 basis points at the FED meeting on September 18, 2024. Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Driven by these dynamics, Bitcoin has struggled to find a price balance as miners prepare to face a season of halved earnings due to the protocol’s halving.

Despite all this, however, crypto seems to be setting the stage in a big way for a comeback, which will send it straight to record new all-time highs.

On the macro front, the cooling of the labor market gives hope that the FED can provide the necessary fuel for risk-on markets to face the second half of 2024.

From a more technical analysis and on-chain data perspective, we can see how the open interest, funding rate and liquidation data have undergone a recovery after the excessive speculation seen in the first quarter of the year, indicating a possible restart propose in the near future. future.

The halving effect, which reduces the supply of new coins by 50%, will have its effects in the coming months and may cause a supply shock if we also have an increase in demand pressure for spot ETFs in the US and Hong Kong.

In such a scenario, analyst Bernstein released his prediction for the Bitcoin bull market, which expressly states that the crypto will reach $150,000 as the cycle peak in the next year.

On-chain data from Bitfinex: reducing implied volatility

According to the analysis of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, after the halving, the implied volatility of Bitcoin decreased significantly, which only found a new acceleration in price fluctuations in the last few days.

In a context of graphic uncertainty weighed down by complex macroeconomic issues, as traders tried to establish a price balance for Bitcoin and other assets, the volatility index fell sharply, signaling the beginning of a phase of stagnation suggest the restart.

This is what was reported by Bitfinex analysts, who noted how this dynamic reflects a less alarming expectation of market participants.

“The halving of Bitcoin not only changed the supply mechanism of Bitcoin, but also played a decisive role in recalibrating the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market and investors’ expectations.”

It is clear that after the halving on April 20, it acted as an uncertainty resolution event, significantly affecting the volatility and market dynamics of cryptocurrencies.

In particular, the volatility index fell by 24.3%, falling from 74.54 points to 56.47 points in a few days. This change indicates the expected market sentiment regarding future price fluctuations, but it was not reflected by significant price movements, suggesting a stabilization effect.

Likewise, the implied volatility of Ethereum (EVIV) also decreased by 15.9 percent in the same period, from 61.94 points to 52.08 points, even if its price was more affected by an upward trend with predictions that the possibility of greater growth in ETH compared to BTC.

These declines indicate a lower degree of correlation between price levels and volatility, and a greater reduction in market uncertainty.

In summary, Bitcoin’s halving not only reduced the potential supply pressure by lowering the block reward, but also played a crucial role in recalibrating market dynamics and restoring investor expectations.

Now the market is healthy to start again and aim for the long-awaited $100,000 break.

Disclaimer for Uncirculars, with a Touch of Personality:

While we love diving into the exciting world of crypto here at Uncirculars, remember that this post, and all our content, is purely for your information and exploration. Think of it as your crypto compass, pointing you in the right direction to do your own research and make informed decisions.

No legal, tax, investment, or financial advice should be inferred from these pixels. We’re not fortune tellers or stockbrokers, just passionate crypto enthusiasts sharing our knowledge.

And just like that rollercoaster ride in your favorite DeFi protocol, past performance isn’t a guarantee of future thrills. The value of crypto assets can be as unpredictable as a moon landing, so buckle up and do your due diligence before taking the plunge.

Ultimately, any crypto adventure you embark on is yours alone. We’re just happy to be your crypto companion, cheering you on from the sidelines (and maybe sharing some snacks along the way). So research, explore, and remember, with a little knowledge and a lot of curiosity, you can navigate the crypto cosmos like a pro!

UnCirculars – Cutting through the noise, delivering unbiased crypto news

Share196Tweet123
Dr. Jane Chen

Dr. Jane Chen

Armed with a PhD in cryptography and years of research, Dr. Chen dives deep into the technical intricacies of blockchain. Her insightful analyses of white papers and on-chain data provide a unique understanding of the technology's potential and limitations.

UnCirculars

Copyright © 2024 UnCirculars

Navigate Site

  • About Us
  • Advertise
  • Terms of Use
  • Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Contact Us

Follow Us

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Trading & Investing
    • Risk Management & Portfolio Allocation
    • Strategies & Techniques
    • Fundamental Analysis & Research
    • Technical Analysis Tools & Indicators
  • Crypto News & Analysis
    • Bitcoin
    • Market Overview & Trends
    • Altcoins
    • Technical Analysis & Charting
  • DeFi & NFTs
    • Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
    • Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)
    • Exchange Hacks & Security Breaches
    • Wallet Hacking & Phishing Attacks
  • Blockchain Technology
    • Supply Chain & Logistics Solutions
    • Enterprise Adoption & Applications
    • Healthcare & Medical Innovations
    • Energy & Sustainability Initiatives

Copyright © 2024 UnCirculars