Bitcoin is taking a break after surging to new all-time highs last week, fueled by the launch of the first futures-based bitcoin ETF.
The slight price pullback can be linked to a popular strategy during crypto bull runs where traders invested in bitcoin take profits and rotate capital into altcoins in hopes of turbocharging their profits.
“We’ve definitely seen at least some buying power rotate in some of the altcoins,” Armando Aguilar, a digital asset strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said in an interview.
The problem is that there are over 9,000 altcoins today, with even more being minted daily. To sift the wheat from the chaff, investors need to analyze both the fundamental factors and technical trading indicators of these fast-moving crypto-assets, according to Mark Newton, a 25-year technical analysis veteran on Wall Street.
“I think technical analysis is extremely important in crypto because a lot of the fundamentals don’t accurately guide you to know when the price is going to go up and down,” Newton, who recently joined Fundstrat as global head of technical strategy, said. Insider said. in an interview.
Bullish factors such as increased institutional ownership and adoption of crypto may be present in the market for weeks or even months, but they do not necessarily cause prices to move, he noted.
“So I often look at a combination of technical with good fundamentals, and it’s really a win-win,” he said.
5 popular altcoins near their own breakout points
Technical analysis is essentially the study of price movement, volume, sentiment and trade flow to identify and project price trends.
“When you see prices get above certain levels that cause the shorts to cover, you see people come in to try to buy technical breakouts and then the volume increases,” Newton said. “So technical points just help you take the blindfold off and be able to examine price action and how things are moving, and these patterns tend to repeat over time.”
Looking at the crypto market, Newton noted that popular altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Polkadot (DOT), Tezos (XTZ) and Binance coins (BNB), are at or near their highs of 52 weeks is and seems. near their own outbreaks.
“These are only attractive to me based on their technical formations,” he said. “Usually, those who start to show strength are the ones who will continue to show strength.”
Trading at $4,233 as of Monday afternoon, Ethereum has burned 603,452 or about $2 billion worth of ether tokens since its London hard fork, a network upgrade aimed at transitioning from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake facilitated. .
In an Oct. 20 research note, Newton wrote that price targets for ethereum above $4,027 should not face much resistance at $4,410. Moreover, it is likely to surpass this level and rise to targets near $4,951, with additional technical projections to $5,826. His technical analysis can be seen in the chart below.
Polkadot, which was trading at $44 as of Monday afternoon, also “started to show real strength in recent weeks following its breakout above the September 2021 highs,” Newton noted.
“This puts the altcoin within striking distance of the all-time highs made in May,” he wrote. “Recent consolidation this week is not technically bearish, but simply indicates minor consolidation.”
Created in 2016 by Ethereum co-founder Gavin Wood, Polkadot recently announced that it will go through a key development in November where its parachains will link to external blockchains such as bitcoin and ethereum.
Earlier in October, polka dot experienced pullbacks that took it below $30, but Newton believes that the correction “should be short-lived and will initially find support near $38, then $36.50, which will represent areas to buy dips. ” Meanwhile, the altcoin is likely to challenge the $49 to $50.75 price levels in the coming days or weeks, given its “improving structure and bullish momentum,” he added.
He also highlighted solana as an altcoin that is “attractive to own” given the consolidation that followed its 900% gain from July to September.
“As prices have successfully maintained in the upper quartile of its range despite its sideways trading in the last month, this swing is thought to represent a very good risk/reward to buy SOL/USD,” Newton wrote.
The token, which traded below $200 as recently as Oct. 21, rose to $213 as of Monday afternoon.
The decentralized blockchain is one of the fastest and lowest-cost layer-one protocols with over 400 projects spanning decentralized finance, non-slingable tokens and Web3. The network claims to process more than 50,000 transactions per second. According to data provider Defi Llama, the total value locked of all assets deposited in DeFi protocols on Solana also peaked at $13.84 billion as of Monday afternoon.
Newton noted that a break above $167.47 should lead Solana to at least $235, with additional targets at $308.54.
A ‘very positive’ Q4 for bitcoin
Newton said he has an upward bias for bitcoin (BTC) between now and late November or early December.
The largest cryptocurrency, which traded at $63,326 as of Monday afternoon, has risen in eight of the 11 fourth quarters since it began trading in 2010.
“Anything can happen, but trends right now are still very positive for bitcoin,” he said. “Seasonally, this is also a very positive time for bitcoin.”
Based on past price activity, Newton set upside price targets for bitcoin to carry through to $72,500 and then $89,000, which would be “a 100% extension of the rally from last March’s lows,” he wrote in the research note.
Yet there are still bearish signs. The daily relative strength index for bitcoin is overbought, indicating that the token may be headed for a trend reversal or price pullback. But Newton thinks bitcoin’s seasonal strength and technical setup will prevail in the near term.
“Finally, despite daily RSI reaching the highest overbought levels of the year, it is right to favor additional gains,” he wrote.
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