The S&P 500 index ( SPX ) snapped its five-week winning streak and fell 0.42% last week as the United States consumer price index and producer price index for January rose more than economists expected. Warm inflation reports raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates until late in the year. Previously, market observers had expected a rate cut as early as March.
The unfavorable macroeconomic data did not affect Bitcoin’s BTCUSD price, which rose about 8% to end the week at $52,137, its highest weekly close since November 2021. Although $52,000 has acted as resistance over the past few days, the Bitcoin bulls have been in no rush to take gains not discussed. This suggests that the market participants remain bullish for the long term.
Another positive in Bitcoin’s favor is that the outflow of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has slowed. After bleeding $5.64 billion in January, the outflow of GBTC slowed to $1.37 billion in February.
Could Bitcoin start the next leg of the uptrend, pulling certain altcoins higher? Let’s analyze the cards to find out.
S&P 500 Index Price Analysis
The S&P 500 index bounced back from the 20-day exponential moving average (4,940) on February 13, indicating an uptrend.
However, the bears are not ready to give up easily and are trying to protect the overhead resistance of 5,048. The negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) warns of a possible correction or consolidation in the short term.
A break below the 20-day EMA would signal the start of a deeper correction. The index may then drop to the 50-day simple moving average (4,813) and then to 4,650.
Contrary to this assumption, if the index continues higher and breaks above 5.048, it will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The index could then rise to 5,200.
US dollar index price analysis
The US dollar index (DXY) tried to start an upward move on February 13, but the rally met strong selling pressure near 105.
The price dropped and reached the 20-day EMA (104), an important support to watch out for. If the price recovers from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make another attempt to push the index to 106 and then to 107.
Conversely, if the index breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that higher levels continue to attract selling by the bears. The index may then drop to the 50-day SMA (103), which is likely to attract buyers.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin is consolidating in an uptrend. The bears are trying to stop the rally at $52,000, but the bulls have kept up the pressure.
A tight consolidation near a crucial resistance is usually to the upside. If the bulls push the price above $52,000 and hold, it will signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The BTCUSDT pair can then rise to $60,000.
If bears want to prevent the upside move, they will need to quickly drag the price below the 20-day EMA ($48,260). If they do, the stops of several short-term traders can be hit. The pair could then drop to the 50-day SMA ($44,647).
Ether price analysis
Ether ETHUSD bounced back from $2,717 on February 17, indicating that the bulls are trying to turn the level into support.
The ETHUSDT pair rose above the immediate resistance of $2,868 on February 18, indicating the resumption of the uptrend. Buyers will try to maintain the momentum and kick the price to the psychologically critical level of $3,000.
The rally of the past few days has sent the RSI above 78, indicating the possibility of a minor correction or consolidation in the near term. Sellers would need to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($2,615) to signal a short-term top.
BNB price analysis
GNB BNBUSD has pulled back into an uptrend, suggesting profit taking by short-term traders. Generally, pullbacks don’t last more than three days in a strong uptrend.
The rising 20-day EMA ($330) and the RSI near the overbought territory indicate that the bulls are in control. If the price emerges and breaks above $367, it will suggest that the uptrend has resumed. The BNBUSDT pair can then attempt a rally to $400.
Instead, if the price stays lower and slips below $348, the pair could reach the 20-day EMA. This level could attract buyers again, but if the bears prevail, the pair could drop to the 50-day SMA ($314).
XRP price analysis
XRP XRPUSD has been stuck between the downtrend line and the 20-day EMA ($0.54) for the past few days, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn gradually, and the RSI has risen into the positive zone, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. If the price breaks and closes above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The XRPUSDT pair will then try to rally to $0.67.
On the contrary, if the price turns sharply away from the downtrend line and falls below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that bears remain in command. The pair could then drop to $0.50.
Solana price analysis
Solana SOLUTION pulled back to the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern on February 17, and the bulls held their ground.
The upward 20-day EMA ($106) and the RSI above 62 indicate that the bulls have the upper hand. There is a minor resistance at $119, but it is likely to be crossed. The SOLUSDT pair could then retest the tight overhead resistance at $127. If this level is scaled down, the pair can reach the pattern target of $135.
This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price declines and dips below the 20-day EMA. This could lead to long liquidations, pulling the pair towards the 50-day SMA ($100).
Cardano price analysis
That of Cardano ADAUSD long tail on the February 17 candlestick shows that the bulls still see declines to the 20-day EMA ($0.56) as a buying opportunity.
The bulls are trying to maintain the price above the immediate resistance of $0.62. If they succeed, the ADAUSDT pair could contribute to the essential resistance at $0.68. This level could witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears, but if the buyers prevail, the next stop is expected to be $0.90.
On the contrary, if the price drops sharply from $0.68, it will indicate that the bears are strongly defending the level. A break below the 20-day EMA would indicate that the bullish momentum has weakened.
Avalanche price analysis
Avalanche AVAX USD rejected from the $42 level on February 15, but a positive sign is that the bulls did not allow the price to fall below the 20-day EMA ($38.40).
The bulls will try again to clear the barrier at $42, and if they succeed, the AVAXUSDT pair will complete a reverse H&S pattern. The pair could then soar to $50, which could be a tough barrier to cross.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA is the key support to watch out for. If this level is cracked, the pair could slide towards the 50-day SMA ($36.16). Such a move would suggest that the pair could oscillate between $32 and $42 for some time.
Dogecoin price analysis
The bears tried to pull Dogecoin DOGE USD back into the symmetrical triangle pattern on February 17, but the bulls aggressively protected the level.
The 20-day EMA ($0.08) has started to turn gradually, and the RSI is above 63, indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback. If the bulls clear the barrier at $0.09, the DOGEUSDT pair can climb to the $0.10 to $0.11 resistance zone.
This bullish view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns and collapses below the moving averages. Such a move suggests that the bears are selling on every minor relief rally. The sell could intensify on a break below the uptrend line.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
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