The Bul case
Sassano believes there are a number of scenarios that could fuel a rise in Ethereum’s price in the future, one of which is a new development known as “re-staking,” in which users share the same tokens on the central blockchain and other protocols. contain, thereby securing several networks at the same time.
“Re-striking unlocks a brand new primitive for Ethereum and extends ETH’s strong market capitalization and liquidity profile to secure services,” says Sassano.
Investor excitement around restocking has been high, with many new restocking protocols emerging in the past few months and billions of Ethereum being deposited by investors. “EigenLayer, the current top recovery protocol, has already raised more than $6 billion in leveraged ETH tokens,” says Sassano.
Just as the mock BTC ETF applications created a positive narrative for Bitcoin, driving Bitcoin’s price upwards after the approval date, Sassano believes the same situation could play out for Ethereum.
“With the approval of spot BTC ETFs in January and the change in attitude of the SEC towards Ethereum over the last six months, there is good reason to believe that the SEC will approve spot ETH ETFs for trading sometime in 2024,” he says .
The earliest date of approval is expected to be May 23, but it could happen anytime this year.
There are also a host of significant network upgrades scheduled for 2024 that could positively impact Ethereum’s price. For example, Sassano points out Dencun, the long-awaited Ethereum network upgrade, is going live sometime in March, which will bring a host of improvements, not the least of which will be cheaper transaction fees. This is particularly important because a large amount of transaction activity has shifted from Ethereum to Ethereum-based Layer-2 networks over the past 12 months. These Layer-2 networks, which are essentially blockchains that exist on top of Ethereum, take advantage of Ethereum’s decentralization and security while providing faster and cheaper transactions for users. The Dencun upgrade will make these networks even more economical, lowering transaction fees to a few cents or possibly lower in some cases.
With the approval of spot BTC ETFs in January and the change in attitude of the SEC towards Ethereum over the past six months, there is good reason to believe that the SEC will approve spot ETH ETFs for trading sometime in 2024
Petra, another Ethereum upgrade expected to go live by the end of this year, is still in development, but as Sassano notes, “it looks like the main improvement will be the hardening of Ethereum’s censorship resistance properties”. This improvement ensures that all users have equal access to the network’s services, protecting the platform’s decentralized and open format for digital transactions and applications.
Finally, Ethereum’s fee-burning mechanism, introduced in The Merge upgrade, continues to operate, reducing the overall supply of Ethereum. “This steady burn of Ethereum continues, further supporting a potential rise in value,” adds Sassano.
The Bear case
Although Sassano is optimistic about Ethereum’s potential, he acknowledges the possibility of downturns. However, he argues that a bearish scenario for Ethereum seems distinctly less likely given the positive catalysts on the horizon. Instead, a bear case is likely to be tied to broader market conditions or increased regulatory scrutiny.
“I don’t think there’s really a bear case for Ethereum or ETH right now, given all the positive catalysts coming,” Sassano says. “The bear case for all of crypto would be more about a shock in the macro environment or a worsening of the regulatory pressures we’ve already seen on crypto.”
In the long term, Sassano identifies potential factors that could suppress Ethereum’s growth. “If we think of a bear case for Ethereum over the next five to 10 years, it will be Ethereum that does not continue to grow; its product-market fit appears to be only niche; and is hampered by regulation, especially at the ports of entry,” he says. This could involve tighter regulation of fiat currency engagement with Ethereum, or even tighter stablecoin regulation more broadly.
However, Sassano stresses that this scenario seems relatively unlikely. “Obviously, I give it a very low chance of happening,” he adds. While it is essential to consider all possibilities in the unpredictable world of cryptocurrencies, the current landscape indicates a more positive outlook for Ethereum.
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