Is A Bitcoin Price Crash Possible Today? Here’s what to expect

There are several hypotheses circulating that suggest a crash in the price of Bitcoin today or in the coming days.

In fact, in recent days it has fallen, probably due to a trend reversal, but these are still almost irrelevant movements in the medium/short term.

A negative signal for the price of Bitcoin

In particular, yesterday the charts showed a clear negative signal for the price of Bitcoin.

During the weekend, with traditional markets closed, the daily RSI index of BTC price rose above the legendary 70 points and entered the overbought zone, if only for a short time.

The climb to the 70 mark began on Monday, October 14 after staying in the neutral zone around 50 points for two weeks.

Already on Tuesday the 15th it passed 65 points, and on Wednesday it even reached above 67.

On Friday it exceeded 69 points and on Sunday it also exceeded 70.

At that point, that is yesterday, a trend reversal occurred, with a sudden return to 61 points.

The possible collapse of today’s Bitcoin price

Although this return to 61 points of the daily RSI index of the Bitcoin price was such that it led to the belief that the surplus of the previous days has now been completely exhausted, it should not be forgotten that just a little over ten days ago it was below 45 points.

This means that in theory the decline could continue.

However, a decrease in the daily RSI index does not necessarily mean that a drop in price will follow.

One should not forget that both the change in buying pressure and the change in selling pressure matter, and according to the data of BTC present on the exchanges, the selling pressure should decrease in these days.

Therefore, it is possible that the price of BTC will not fall significantly from the current level, even if the RSI index were to fall further, as long as the latter does not collapse.

This makes a crash today possible, but not likely.

However, the discussion changes if instead of considering an actual collapse, one considers a possible further decline.

The fall in the price of Bitcoin

As a starting point to examine the risks of further declines, it is useful to consider the $58,800 reached for a brief moment on October 10.

Since then, in just 11 days, the price of Bitcoin has soared above $69,000, a rise that many analysts consider excessively fast.

At this moment, there is probably a kind of race among speculators to be the first to sign up before the potential increase associated with the presidential elections in the USA, especially in the event of a victory by Donald Trump.

Generally, in the past, the moment the election-related rally started was around October 20, or shortly before, while this year it seems to have started shortly after the 10th.

In short, there may have been a small excess of anticipation, highlighted by the rapid rise from below $59,000 to above $69,000.

If we observe the last few days, the most stable level seems to be $67,000, and in fact the price dropped below this level yesterday, but then quickly moved back above it.

This suggests that, in the absence of unforeseen events, BTC may remain at current levels without falling further, in anticipation of the US elections. In other words, yesterday’s correction may already be over.

However, there are also several analysts who foresee a possible further decline even below $65,000, but these are always movements of little significance in the medium/short term.

The other threshold of attention should be 63,000 $.

Bull Running Around the Corner After Today’s Bitcoin Price Crash?

For a true new bull run to begin, as has already happened with the US presidential elections of 2012, 2016 and 2020, the price of Bitcoin must return significantly above $69,000 on a stable basis.

Tried it yesterday, but that attempt failed, and very quickly.

This means that it is not yet time for the start of a bull run, perhaps precisely because of the slight excess of anticipation mentioned above.

In particular, from this point of view, the attention threshold is $72,000, which is the level that constitutes the ceiling for months beyond which there was no way to go.

A potential strong, clear and significant breakout of this resistance could completely change the scenario.

However, it should not be forgotten that all this is not even remotely sufficient to predict with certainty that there will be a new bull run.

The Dollar Index

In particular, yesterday the real problem for the price of Bitcoin was the Dollar index.

At the end of September, this index hovered around the 100 mark, while between yesterday and today it even rose above 104 points.

It may seem like a small climb, but for an index like this, 4 points gained in three weeks is actually a lot. Just consider that the maximum of 2024 was around 106 points.

The hypothesis that is doing the rounds is that it may rise to 104.5 points before the election, but then start to fall. It could be the drop in the Dollar Index after the US election that creates the conditions for a new Bitcoin bull run.

So on the one hand there are the speculators who are competing to try to get ahead of the bull run, but without getting in too early, while on the other hand there is the Dollar Index which could continue to rise for a few more days.

In such a situation, it is really difficult to make short-term predictions, while it is easier to predict that the Dollar Index may start to fall after the election.