PlanB, a popular name within the Bitcoin community thanks to its Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has shared the latest discourse on X, igniting a wave of excitement and speculation. This discourse particularly highlights BTC’s potential journey through successive halving cycles.
PlanB’s analysis, deeply rooted in the S2F model, provides a narrative for Bitcoin’s future. This model examines the correlation between an asset’s existing reserves (inventory) and annual production (flow) and lays the foundation for PlanB’s bold predictions.
Navigating Forecasts: A Community Aweigh
According to the model, the upcoming halving cycle spanning 2020-2024 is expected to stabilize Bitcoin’s price at around $50,000. But the real spectacle unfolds in subsequent cycles, with projections setting the stage for Bitcoin to rise to $500,000 in the 2024-2028 cycle, eventually reaching a monumental $5 million in the 2028-2032 cycle.
Stock-to-Flow 2020-2024 halving cycle: ~$50kStock-to-Flow 2024-2028 halving cycle: ~$500kStock-to-Flow 2028-2032 halving cycle: ~$5mYes, S2F = exponential growth, and it will continue IMO. pic.twitter.com/rH1KmIyKSl
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 18, 2024
The predictions made by PlanB have sparked interest and debate among the crypto community. Many are curious to see if Bitcoin will experience the predicted significant growth.
An X user responded to PlanB’s post, expressing hope, yet advising caution due to the limited number of data points that cannot definitively predict exact future prices, such as an average of $500k from 2024 to 2028.
PlanB acknowledged this caution, pointing out that its forecasts are based on three previous halving events and the significant pre-halving period, suggesting that while the stock-to-flow model may guide the general trend, its accuracy has a significant margin of error. has. .
For example, while the 2020-2024 period was projected to see an average of $55k, the actual figure was around $33k.
Very true. Only 3 halvings (2012, 2016 and 2020) plus the crucial pre-halving period (where BTC S2F grew from under 1 to ~4). And S2F is obviously just for general direction and with a wide margin of error (eg: forecast 2020-2024 was 55k but in reality ~33k).
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 18, 2024
Additionally, another user in the conversation, known as Phoenix of Crypto, noted that while PlanB’s projection may seem “too optimistic,” the true outcome remains to be seen, emphasizing the need for patience.
This user highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s future, especially considering the potential impact of ETFs and widespread adoption, indicating an open-minded but vigilant approach to market developments.
Bitcoin latest price action
Bitcoin is undergoing a notable decline, down 7.5% in the past week. This downward trajectory has extended over the past 24 hours, with the cryptocurrency dropping an additional 1.5%. Despite these setbacks, Bitcoin’s trading price remains at $67,167 at the time of writing.
Skew, a well-known trader, has provided technical analysis indicating a critical support range for Bitcoin investors between $60,000 and $67,000.
This series is considered a possible pivot for the market’s direction, while also noting the significant selling activity on leading platforms such as Coinbase and Binance.
$BTC Spot Market Data Thread, in partnership @_WOO_X $BTC Binance SpotWeekend spot buyer here
Mock Offer ($72K – $74K) Mock Ask ($60K)
Interestingly, the last bounce sold also resulted in a stack of limit bids being quoted lower.~ Watch those bids… pic.twitter.com/3PKHyddNlv
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) March 17, 2024
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
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