Altcoins Go Into “IQ50” Mode, Is A New High For BTC On The Way?

Author: CMed, BlockBeats

On the evening of October 21, Eastern Eight Time, BTC broke upward, officially passing the 69,000 mark and reaching a high of 69,500 USD. Throughout the weekend, BTC remained mostly in a sideways trend with low liquidity. Why did a sudden surge occur during Sunday’s US trading hours? Is this boom driven by futures contracts or caused by spot buying?

Recently, there have been many positive developments for altcoins, from APE, to DYDX and SUSHI. After the positive news, many altcoins saw increases of more than 20%. The bottom altcoins are gradually showing signs of life. Could the oracle sector, which was the engine of last October’s bull market, lead altcoins out of another bull market this time? Is the bull really back? Let’s look at traders’ perspectives from several angles.

Technical Analysis Group

@leon_li2

From the candlestick chart, it appears that BTC has broken through a downtrend line that has lasted for more than half a year, apparently setting new highs daily, but the trading volume at these new highs has shrunk significantly. In contrast, ETH broke through its previous high but only reached the real pressure zone around 2800. The increase in ETH yesterday brought high market sentiment, and for the first time the contract price exceeded the spot price, leading to the belief that the bullish trend is nearing its end, and the edifice could collapse at any moment.

Many people are comparing the current market to October 2023, noting that both a weekly MACD golden cross and a weekly bullish candlestick show breaking previous highs. However, I believe the current market sentiment is completely different from that time; at the time the consensus was bearish, while now it is bullish. I don’t think the MACD golden cross here has any practical meaning for trading, as a golden cross can quickly turn into a death cross. Who is right or wrong will depend on whether it repeats the bullish candlestick and sets new highs this week.

As for when I will stop being bearish, it will probably be after ETH effectively breaks through 2820 after a consolidation. Currently I have no short positions and am looking for opportunities to short on the right side.

@CryptoPainterX

From the ASR-VC4 hourly channel perspective, the current price action is somewhat similar to the pattern at the end of September, constantly operating near the average pressure zone. This can either be a build-up or a sign of depleted momentum. From the point of view of spot premiums, it looks like the market in early June, where a long-term negative premium indicated a bullish trend. The key price level for determining a full bullish trend in the channel is at 71,000. If it breaks strongly through the average pressure zone, the first target could be near the overbought line, currently around 77,500.

@Patrade_Buer

From a weekly perspective, the uptrend continues. Currently BSL is waiting to be taken. This uptrend should set new highs, with my personal target looking at the 90,000 range. It still belongs to the range (the FVG gap in the oscillation range is usually filled), so watch for opportunities for WFVG, around 64,500 USD.

From a daily perspective, it continues to oscillate upwards, mainly waiting for BSL to be taken. If there is a chance for BTC to pull back, it will probably be around 645, and it is imperative to buy. If BTC doesn’t have many trading opportunities, look for trading opportunities in altcoins.

From an hourly perspective, it oscillates upwards and constantly creates new highs. If it comes back without breaking the OB, short-term longs can be taken during the day; if it breaks the OB, one can expect buying opportunities on the pullback.

@CryptosLaowai

First, I believe the downtrend line of this major cycle has been broken and successfully retested. A bearish rising wedge has formed on a smaller scale, indicating near-term weakness, with a potential retracement to the major cycle’s downtrend line and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of this round of market warfare, around 67,000 USD, which is a large-scale rising wedge. The first target of this upward movement remains around 72,000 USD.

Data Analysis Group

@Kbeast.eth

Based on the value range of BTC’s wide swings over the past six months, yesterday’s upside breakout did not exceed the VAH of this half year. Moreover, the thickest spread area, which is the largest supply zone, is at 70,900. If it can continue to rise without showing upward auction rejection, the next target for the rise will be 70,900.

From the perspective of the annual VWAP, it went through a build-up breakout without a significant downside drive, but bounced back without breaking. Therefore, I believe that it will continue to break upwards in the short term. According to the copper liquidity depth chart and liquidation heat chart, a key position for a downward retracement is around 65,000 – 67,000 USD.

Observing the auction format during the day, there is a clear bullish auction structure. This is consistent with the view of continued upside breaks, so one can remain bullish.

@LinChen91162689

@CryptoPainterX

From a data perspective, in the spot market: aggregate spot sales remained slightly negative on Sunday night, but began to pick up significantly on Monday morning, with the surge occurring in two phases; in the futures market: composite futures saw continuous small selling from Sunday night into Monday morning, holding long positions during the first surge in the spot market, but after the second surge fully broke through 69,000, it turned completely bullish. It appears that the bears initially entered on the possibility of a false breakout at 69,000 and were then forced to reverse-loss as strong buying in the spot market pushed prices higher. Notably, Coinbase changed its previous continuous sale status from Sunday and started accumulating small amounts, which is a significant change. However, Binance Futures only showed clear buying during three significant rises, while the rest of the time was spent on small long/short positions. In summary, collocation has started to appear! Although the volume is not large, if it can absorb the selling pressure of futures profit-taking, the price may stabilize at 69,000.

From the perspective of USDT market share, the weekly USDT market share has broken slightly below the uptrend line of the past six months. If this actually confirms a breakdown, it represents the entry of idle funds, and a likely outcome is that BTC’s dominance may temporarily peak, while altcoins and small-cap projects will gain extensive liquidity in the next 2-3 weeks.

From the perspective of total open interest on futures contracts, the total open interest for BTC futures across the network has remained above 40 billion USD for three consecutive days. While maintaining high open interest, the price increased by 1,500 USD, indicating that spot funds entered in small amounts. However, compared to BTC’s previous fluctuations between 68,000 and 69,000, the current total open interest has increased by 2.5 billion USD. For spot bulls, although sentiment is strong, there has been no significant selling pressure. Therefore, for the current market, spotting will not become a source of potential risk. Instead, the additional 2.5 billion in open interest may be the source of the next “long push,” which will lead to the liquidation of many high-position bulls. In a true bull market, every liquidation of a large number of leveraged bulls is a necessary condition for the next rise. In a market with a high futures weight, the bears are the source of upside funds, while the bulls become a liability.

Macro Analysis Group

@Phyrex_Ni

Last Friday, the data for BTC spot ETFs continued to perform well. Although there is a trend of declining purchasing power similar to ETH, a significant amount of funds are still concentrated in BTC. On Friday, the net inflow of the spot ETF was 4,099 BTC, which, although the lowest data of the week, is still strong compared to the past.

BlackRock continuously increased its holdings for five consecutive business days during the week, adding a total of 16,975 BTC. Such weekly increase data has not been seen since March. Fidelity added 4,807 BTC, second place, followed by ARK with 4,538 BTC and Bitwise with 2,244 BTC in fourth place.

It is worth mentioning that Grayscale’s GBTC has seen a net increase of 963 BTC in the past week, not counting the amount added by the Mini ETF, which forms a sharp contrast to ETH. Even in times of very tight liquidity, investors’ limited funds are still concentrated primarily in BTC.

In the past week, the net buying power of twelve US ETFs was 31,119.43 BTC, an increase of 685.34% compared to the previous week. This data also exceeds that of ETH. Grayscale’s net sales changed from 1,103.36 BTC two weeks ago to a net inflow of 1,232.71 BTC, indicating that Greyscale is no longer synonymous with BTC sales.

Other cryptocurrencies

@MaoShu_CN

Altcoins showed some improvement over the weekend. Meme coins have experienced a pullback, but caution is still warranted amid the optimism. The oracle sector is rising, with API3 and DIA indicating increased on-chain activity, which can be seen as a positive signal for altcoins. APE rallied after a pump announcement on October 20, peaking over 100%, leading a combined rally in the metaverse and NFT sectors. Overall, the current market narrative seems to lack hotspots related to the metaverse and NFTs, so these hotspots should be approached with caution as they may be altcoins taking the opportunity to become active before selling. After all, in this cycle the metaverse and NFT sectors have the lowest heat. However, I remain optimistic about the activity in the oracle sector, as last year’s altcoin rally also started with the oracle sector, with the hope that this could reactivate market activity.

@0XEN

He believes the market operates in mysterious ways, and we all have the opportunity to find some currencies that can bring excess returns, or to see a currency go to zero after being promoted by other KOLs. For him, he’d pick $GOAT and $GNON, and he’s already bottomed out on GOAT. He believes GOAT and GNON will become key positions for long-term trends in the future. If he is wrong, he will become the exit liquidity for others.