Tom Lee recently said at Korea Blockchain Week that the mid-term price for Ethereum is $ 60,000, and he mentions that Ethereum is currently lasting in a super cycle that lasts 10-15 years.
If its judgment is correct, this super cycle will progress in waves, which extend across various cycles, vary between bull and bear markets.
Right now we are in a bull market, but bull markets do not last forever.
Looking back on history, Ethereum fell by 94% in 2018 and in 2022 by 80%, so our reason to expect another important correction in the future.
Currently, we cannot determine when the correction will take place, but by detecting several key indicators, we can refer to the levels that Ethereum has reached in the recent cycles to provide a basis for future trends.
Important indicator analysis and price goals
200-week moving average
Data Source: The Defi Report
Currently, Ethereum’s trading price is 92% higher than the 200-week moving average ($ 2400).
During the 2021 cycle, when the market reached, Ethereum’s price was 492% above the 200-week moving average.
Scenario -Analysis:
200% above the 200-week moving average: Ethereum price is $ 7,300 250% above the 200-week moving average: Ethereum price is $ 8,500 300% above the 200-week moving average: Ethereum price is $ 9,800 350% above the 200-week moving average: Ethereum price is $ 11,000 400% 400% 400% 400% 400% 400%
Note: The 200-week moving average is a dynamic indicator, but over time we gradually replace the price data from about four years ago in the $ 3,000- $ 4,000 series for Ethereum. Therefore, the fluctuations of the 200-week moving average are expected to be very small by the end of this year.
Ethereum -price to realized price ratio
Data Source: The Defi Report, Glass Node
The realized price can serve as an alternative measure of cost. Since January 1, 2017, the average ratio of Ethereum price to the realized price has been 1.6. Currently this ratio is 1.9.
In the 2017 cycle, the peak ratio was 5; In the 2021 cycle, the peak ratio was 3.5 in April, and in November it was 2.9.
Scenario -analysis (if the ratio reaches 2.9):
If the realized price is $ 3,000: Ethereum price is $ 8,700 if the realized price is $ 3,500: Ethereum price is $ 10,200 if the realized price is $ 4,000: Ethereum price is $ 11,600
MVRV Z-score
Data Source: The Defi Report, Glass Node
The Z score measures how much the market cap is above or below the benchmark on the chain in terms of ‘volatility units’. A higher Z score indicates that the market is overheated; A negative Z score indicates that the market is undervalued.
Since January 1, 2017, the average Z score for Ethereum has been 0.99, indicating an overall optimistic market sentiment.
The current Z score is 1.66, which is above the historical average but has not yet reached an overheated condition.
In the 2021 cycle, the peak Z score in April was 6.5, and in November it was 3.48.
Scenario -Analysis:
If the Z score is 2.21: Ethereum price is $ 7,000 if the Z score is 2.77: Ethereum price is $ 8,000 if the Z score is 3.33: Ethereum price is $ 9,000 if the Z score is 3.9: Ethereum price is $ 10.000
Note: Accept the realized price increases by the end of this year by 22% (up to $ 3,000). For reference, the realized price has risen by 24% since April this year.
Ethereum to Bitcoin Market Cap ratio
Data Source: The Defi Report
Currently, Ethereum’s market cap is about 23.4% of Bitcoin’s market cap.
In November 2021, Ethereum’s market cap reached 55.5% of Bitcoin’s market cap.
If Bitcoin’s price reaches $ 150,000 (23% higher than the current price), the market cap will reach $ 3 trillion.
Scenario -Analysis:
If Ethereum’s market cap is 35% of the market cap of Bitcoin: Ethereum’s total market cap is $ 1.05 trillion, which matches a $ 8,658 price as Ethereum’s market cap 45% of Bitcoin’s market is: Ethereum’s total market cap is $ 1.35 11,132 Isem’s market cap is 55% of the market of the market. The market cap is $ 1.64 trillion, corresponding to a price of $ 13,559
The key question is whether Bitcoin will see a significant increase? Compared to the last cycle, will Ethereum’s rise relative to Bitcoin be moderate or explosive?
Ethereum to Nasdaq -Index ratio
Data Source: The Defi Report
In May and November 2021, the peak ratio of Ethereum to the Nasdaq index was 0.31 and 0.30 respectively.
The current ratio is 0.20, with the Nasdaq index currently 22,788 points.
If the Nasdaq index increases by 5% by the end of this year (a total increase of 23% for the year), the points will reach 23.927.
Ethereum Price -Scenario -Analysis:
If the ratio is 0.25: Ethereum price is $ 5.981 if the ratio is 0.30: Ethereum price is $ 7,178 If the ratio is 0.35: Ethereum price is $ 8,374 if the ratio is 0.40: Ethereum price is $ 9,570
Our assumption of baseline is that the upward trend of the Ethereum -to -Nasdaq -Index ratio will continue, and this cycle will set a new high (more than 0.30).
Summary
Our basic assumptions are as follows:
Ethereum price is 250% above the 200-week moving average, corresponding to a price of $ 8,500; The realized price reaches $ 3,000, and if the price until the realized price ratio is 2.9, the corresponding Ethereum price is $ 8,700; Ethereum’s market cap reaches 35% of Bitcoin’s market cap, and if Bitcoin’s price is $ 150,000, the corresponding Ethereum price is $ 8,600; The Ethereum and Nasdaq index ratio is a new highlight, and if the ratio is 0.35, the corresponding Ethereum price is $ 8,300.
If the bull market continues, Ethereum’s price can break $ 10,000; If the market gets clumsy, Bitcoin’s peak increase will be limited, and Ethereum will also experience pressure.
At the same time, as the market sentiment warms up, there is an increasing discussion on ‘extensive cycles’, reminding me of the ‘super cycle’ narrative that was common in 2021.
As we mentioned earlier, the baseline assumption remains: Ethereum will reach the highlight of this cycle within this term. “ “
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