Crypto market analysts say increasing altcoin performance, a rising altseason index, and a strengthening TOTAL2 macro structure are early signs that the market may “quietly” enter an altseason in 2026.
Altcoin market shows early signs of recovery
Crypto analyst Darkfost said the recent crypto market pullback fueled by macroeconomic uncertainties surrounding the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war has corrected the altcoin sector by more than 50%.
As a result, nearly 83% of altcoins are now trading below their 200-day moving average (200-DMA), “a key technical indicator closely monitored by investors,” the analyst said in a recent Quicktake post.
Meanwhile, TOTAL3, which tracks the market capitalization of altcoins excluding Ethereum, lost nearly $520 billion, falling to around $670 billion, levels last seen in November 2024.
“This clearly reflects the bearish environment in which altcoins remain trapped,” Darkfost said, adding:
“However, the most interesting opportunities often emerge during periods of extreme pessimism rather than when nearly 90% of altcoins are trading above their 200-DMA, as was the case in March and December 2024.”
Performance of altcoins on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
It is worth mentioning that it is still too early to call for an altseason, as the metric remains below the levels seen in mid-2025 and Q4 2024, when most altcoins traded between 60-80% above their 200-DMA.
Additional data from CryptoQuant reveals rising activity on centralized exchanges (CEX), which is another sign of increasing momentum in altcoins.
The chart below shows that altcoin trading volume, excluding the five largest cryptocurrencies, has steadily increased over the past two months. This is evidenced by the appearance of an Altcoin volume increasing trend (yellow bars), which occurred when the 30-day MA for altcoin trading volume crossed above its 365-day MA.
Historically, when this metric flashes yellow, it indicates a clear rotation of capital from main-cap to mid- and low-cap altcoins.
If this momentum is sustained, it could serve as strong confirmation that a broader altcoin rally is underway.
CEX volume ratio vs Top 5 crypto. Source: CryptoQuant
Note that the last time the yellow bars appeared was in April 2025, which preceded a nearly 260% increase in ETH price while the total altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) increased by 112%.
Altcoin Season “Coming”
Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal has moved back into Altcoin Season territory at 86%, its highest level since September 2025. The signal tracks relative performance between Bitcoin and a broad basket of altcoins to determine whether the market is in a “Bitcoin Season” or “Altcoin Season”.
“The typical version of this push has alts going while BTC remains bid,” Glassnode said in a Monday post on X, adding:
“Currently we are seeing alts running out of sellers after almost two years and BTC pulling down aggressively.”
However, the on-chain data provider noted that unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin’s recent weakness played a larger role in driving the signal. As a result, Van de Poppe remains cautiously optimistic about the near future for altcoins.
The Altcoin Cycle Signal. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, the 90-day AltSeason index, which tracks whether a majority of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past three months, is also reaching.
“The Altcoin Season Index started to reverse from the bottom and reclaimed 50 after shooting into Bitcoin Season territory,” analyst CryptoThannos said in a Monday post on X, adding:
“Altcoin market cap has absorbed the selling pressure and refused to make new lows. Now the rotation game begins. $ALTSZN is inevitable.”
Altcoin season index. Source: CoinMarketCap
Although the index is recovering, its value of 50 means that only 50% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. This falls short of the 75% “altseason” threshold, according to Blockchaincenter.
These include LAB, BCAP, and DEXE, which are up 8,500%, 373%, and 212% over the past three months, compared to Bitcoin (BTC)’s losses of 11.5%.
Top 50 performance over the 90 days. Source: Blockchaincenter
Meanwhile, chain analyst BladeDefi argues that Bitcoin’s dominance has peaked, an event that has historically marked the start of every altseason. He added:
“Biggest altseason coming.”
Altcoins are showing signs of upside
Data from TradingView showed TOTAL2 – the cumulative market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin – reflected a multi-year rising trend line that has supported its price action since the 2022 bear market withdrawal.
The chart below suggests that TOTAL2’s breakout could mirror the late 2023 breakout and rise as high as $3 trillion, adding to the inevitability of the altseason.
TOTAL2/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
CoinvoTrading chart showed that the ETH/USD pair is trading below the lower trendline of a multi-year ascending triangle wedge that has defined its price action since late 2017.
“The last time $ETH broke below the Golden Triangle was during the Covid-19 crash,” the analyst said in a June 22 X post, adding:
“What followed was a major altcoin seasonal rally to the top of the triangle.”
ETH/USD three-week chart. Source: X/CoinvoTrading
The chart above shows that Ether’s price has once again fallen below the lower trendline of the triangle, an event that “historically, it means a rally,” the analyst added.
Note that since Ether is the largest altcoin by market cap, a rise in its price usually carries all the other altcoins along, ushering the market into an “altseason”.
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Disclaimer for Uncirculars, with a Touch of Personality:
While we love diving into the exciting world of crypto here at Uncirculars, remember that this post, and all our content, is purely for your information and exploration. Think of it as your crypto compass, pointing you in the right direction to do your own research and make informed decisions.
No legal, tax, investment, or financial advice should be inferred from these pixels. We’re not fortune tellers or stockbrokers, just passionate crypto enthusiasts sharing our knowledge.
And just like that rollercoaster ride in your favorite DeFi protocol, past performance isn’t a guarantee of future thrills. The value of crypto assets can be as unpredictable as a moon landing, so buckle up and do your due diligence before taking the plunge.
Ultimately, any crypto adventure you embark on is yours alone. We’re just happy to be your crypto companion, cheering you on from the sidelines (and maybe sharing some snacks along the way). So research, explore, and remember, with a little knowledge and a lot of curiosity, you can navigate the crypto cosmos like a pro!
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