Bitcoin Analysts Debate Whether The Crypto Bull Run Is Over Or ‘This Time Is Different’

Yesterday, the bitcoin price briefly dipped below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June. And because of the dynamics that usually play out in terms of bitcoin’s four-year market cycles around halving events, where the amount of new bitcoin issued in each block is cut in half, many analysts wonder if this latest crypto bull market is over.

Would be funny if people sold because they feared the 4-year cycle had already peaked, only to see Bitcoin tear upwards for the next 12 months straight. 🤓

— Samson Mow (@Excellion) November 4, 2025

However, there are also those who claim “this time is different,” and expect new all-time highs above $125,000 to be seen within the next year. Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn has revised his year-end bitcoin price expectations down from $185,000 to $120,000 due to recent events, and he’s not the only analyst making that kind of adjustment. His recent note points to the likelihood of more moderate market cycles and lower volatility for bitcoin in the future relative to its past history of wild price swings.

While it is always dangerous to be the person who claims that things will be different this time, the changing supply and demand dynamics surrounding the bitcoin asset associated with the massive infusion of capital from traditional financial institutions reinforces the possibility that the impact that halving events have on price may diminish.

Why this could be the end, for now

In previous crypto market cycles, things tended to get extremely overheated in terms of retail exuberance which eventually led to some catastrophic event creating extreme fear in the market. For example, the massive crypto bull market in 2021 ultimately led to survival (and outright fraud) culminating in the collapse and subsequent bankruptcy of crypto exchange FTX. Four years earlier, it was the bursting of the bubble in initial coin offerings (ICOs) that marked the apex of the market.

A few weeks ago, the crypto market experienced the largest liquidation event in its history, at least in nominal terms. And the consequences of that event where more than $20 billion worth of positions were wiped out are probably not yet fully understood.

Additionally, bitcoin treasury company Sequans recently sold part of its bitcoin stack to fund buybacks to support the stock price. A bitcoin treasury company is basically a company that uses debt to build up as much bitcoin as possible as quickly as possible. While other digital asset treasury companies have previously sold non-bitcoin crypto-assets, Sequans may be the first example of a purely bitcoin-focused treasury company selling bitcoin, according to CoinDesk.

October 10, 2025 was by a large margin the largest liquidation event in the history of crypto. an estimated $20-30b worth of positions were liquidated. the previous record was $8 billion.

it should therefore not be a surprise if a number of funds include. those with delta neutral strategies, are…

— HasuAL

While Strategy invented this concept of a bitcoin treasury company during the last crypto market cycle, some analysts have become concerned about the viability of the large number of copycat companies that also use debt to take leveraged positions on bitcoin and other crypto assets that have popped up in the past year or two.

These kinds of events combined with the timing roughly matching when the current cycle is expected to end – based on the four-year timeline of previous cycles – has rightly alarmed many analysts.

Why might this time be different?

Two fundamental reasons why some analysts believe this time may be different and the four-year cycle may no longer be relevant is that institutions have brought a whole new level of liquidity to the bitcoin market and the effect that halving events have on supply diminishes over time. As Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said earlier this year, “The movement of assets to ETFs is a 5-10 year trend. It started in 2024… Broader institutional adoption is just starting (ETFs are still approved on national account platforms, pensions and endowments that are now only considering crypto, etc.).”

With the development of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the growing use of bitcoin as a reserve asset by large companies and even nation-states (not in the leveraged way like the aforementioned bitcoin treasury companies), it is clear that the supply and demand dynamics at play here may be quite different from what was seen at lower price levels in previous cycles.

Good read, aligns with the idea of ​​the Great Rotation that I have covered in recent months

The sell-side pressure exerted by existing Bitcoin holders is immense

Average spent coin age this cycle is 100 days, up from 30 days typically.

The buyers are patient, sophisticated and very large. https://t.co/tjm7ghKsnm pic.twitter.com/7Nb65Yoju0

— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) November 1, 2025

Another factor to consider is the general lack of a so-called “altseason” so far this cycle, which is when smaller crypto assets begin to massively outperform bitcoin in a market hysteria that usually marks the final stage of a crypto bull market. Bitcoin market dominance currently stands at 73.7%, according to Bitbo, which is not far from the cycle high of 78.5%.

There are also signs that many of the more centralized aspects of the crypto industry may be increasingly merged into the existing, traditional fintech space, which could signal a healthy move away from decentralization theater and into a more mature market.