TLDR
Some analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $110,000 to $220,000 in its next big rally. Concerns exist about Bitcoin forming a pattern of “lower highs and lower lows” on price charts. The end of capitulation periods for miners following Bitcoin halvings has historically preceded significant price increases. Bitcoin recently reclaimed the short-term holder (STH) realized price, which is seen as a positive sign. Low trading volumes are noted as a potential concern for the current price movement.
Bitcoin’s price action continues to captivate the cryptocurrency market, with analysts offering a wide range of predictions for its next big move.
Despite concerns about a “lower highs and lower lows” pattern forming on price charts, some traders remain bullish, predicting potential highs of $110,000 to $220,000 in Bitcoin’s next significant rally.
Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, said: “The next leg will probably bring Bitcoin to $110K.”
At the bottom, #Bitcoin miners capitulate.
The True Hashrate withdrawal at its last low on July 1st was as HEAVY as during the FTX crash.
This indicates a cycle low. Since the Mount Gox news, the price has risen by 20%.
The next leg will likely bring Bitcoin to $110K. pic.twitter.com/pCSifNMrgW
— Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 17, 2024
This optimistic outlook comes even as veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed out that “the sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues despite the halving, despite the ETF, despite the hype.”
While I am impressed by the current bounce in Bitcoin $BTC, it should be noted that the sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues despite the halving, despite the ETf, despite the hype pic.twitter.com/ V5M6FFaMpJ
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 17, 2024
The recent volatility in Bitcoin’s price is linked to the struggles Bitcoin miners are facing due to rising operating costs and reduced mining rewards following the halving event in April. Van de Poppe noted, “The real hashrate withdrawal at its last low on July 1st was as HEAVY as during the FTX crash.”
Some analysts base their bullish predictions on historical patterns related to miner capitulation.
Pseudonymous cryptoanalyst Cryptonary has shared a hash ribbon chart showing that the end of miner capitulation periods after Bitcoin halvings have historically preceded significant price increases.
Historically, the end of Miner Capitulation periods after Bitcoin Halvings have led to significant price increases for Bitcoin in the following months and year.
The Hash Ribbon metric suggests that Bitcoin bottoms out when miners capitulate due to high mining costs and/or… pic.twitter.com/6CiDVyKM7i
— Cryptonary (@cryptonary) July 17, 2024
Based on this pattern, Cryptonary suggested a potential price peak of $223,000 for this cycle.
Bitcoin’s recent recovery of the short-term holder (STH) realized price is considered a positive development.
CryptoQuant contributor JA Maartunn explained: “This is a positive sign because short-term holders often add to their positions when Bitcoin returns to their average cost base, creating a support level.” Maartunn added that since 2023, Bitcoin has reclaimed the STH realized price on two occasions leading to at least 30% profit.
However, the cryptocurrency market remains highly unpredictable, and not all analysts share the same optimistic outlook. Crypto trader Marco Johanning suggests a more conservative target, saying that Bitcoin will not go to $100,000, “at least not this time,” and offers a forecast nearly 19% lower at around $81,000 to $94,000.
“BTC will go to 100k!” 🚀No. At least not this time.
The new low at 53.4k changes the targets for Bitcoin to 81k or 94k
But it’s definitely time to watch this video again!-> Starts at 6:00 min https://t.co/2HUDjaYQRp pic.twitter.com/sgX0uWSBQh
— Marco Johanning (@themarcojo) July 17, 2024
The area around $65,000 remains an important target for bulls to pivot to support.
Trader and former fund manager Aksel Kibar sees this as a positive sign, noting: “This is the 5th month that $BTCUSD has not retreated from the strong resistance around 65K. I see this as a very bullish long term. To be at ‘ Remaining resistance and no intention to sell is usually a sign of pending breakout.
This is the 5th month that $BTCUSD has not retreated from the strong resistance around 65K. I see this as a very bullish long term.
Staying at a resistance and not intending to sell is usually a sin of pending breakout. pic.twitter.com/9ajs8yAy07
— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) July 18, 2024
Despite the optimism, some traders urge caution. Popular crypto trader JT emphasized that Bitcoin needs to break through several Fibonacci retracement levels for a chance at new all-time highs.
JT also pointed out a worrying trend in trading volumes, noting that the current volume is “remarkable” because it is the opposite of what was seen during the recent BTC price four-month lows near $53,000.
Bitcoin Update:
• We expected a bounce to $65K-$66K from our oversold region at $53.5K, this was quite a bullish setup on the LTF chart
• BUT! Now we hit the PRIMARY .618 from the 4.236 Fib high
• DXY weakness notwithstanding, Bulls need to break above .786 Fib for new ATHs pic.twitter.com/KxTX3sF60O
— JT ✝️ (@JTheretohelp1) July 17, 2024
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