Dow Jones historical chart over 100 years (fascinating chart analysis)

The Dow Jones historical chart over 100 years is included. The Dow Jones is moving right above the top of its 100-year channel on its 100-year chart. This may signal a structural change in equity markets, particularly large-cap capitalization.

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In this article, we step away from the short-term Dow Jones chart which is really disturbing. We take a long-term view, focusing on secular trends available on the historical Dow Jones chart. We offer readers some close-ups that reveal actionable insights to investors.

One of the take-aways is that the Dow Jones is consolidating right at its 100-year rising channel. It even tries to move higher, which is an ‘event’ with secular significance.

In this article, we look at the Dow Jones historical chart over 100 years on various time frames. We use the same 100-year chart and look at the monthly, weekly, daily time frames.

Dow Jones: secular turning pointDow Jones chart at 100 years: monthlyDow Jones 100 years Historical chart: different phasesDow Jones chart at 35 and 7 years

Dow Jones: secular turning point

One of the questions on investors’ minds is when markets will definitely deviate and begin a multi-year bearish trend.

“If we try to resolve this question, by looking at the Dow Jones historical chart over 100 years, we believe we see resistance right below 40k points, presumably around 38-39k points.” We wrote this forecast in mid-2023; as we entered the 2nd half of 2024, this seemed like a correct assessment.

Although the touch of resistance from the Dow Jones historical chart over 100 years, in the 2nd half of 2024, may trigger a pullback, it will not necessarily qualify as a secular bearish turning point similar to the one in 2000 or 1929 (leading has been in a multi-year bear market).

From a timeline perspective, we believe the major secular turning point will occur late this decade, sometime between 2027 and 2028. Between now and then, there will be pullbacks and rallies, but no secular bearish turning point, according to our cycle analysis.

Dow Jones chart over 100 years

The longest time frame of the Dow Jones chart is the quarterly chart over 100 years

The only events in which the Dow Jones Index fell below its 100-year ascending channel were in 1930 and 1974. No coincidence that the Wall Street Crash of 1929 caused the Dow Jones to fall to levels so low even on ‘ a 100-year rising channel does.

An ascending channel is a common thing on any chart. However, it is truly exceptional to see a 100-year channel like the one on the Dow Jones historical chart.

Another important observation on the 100-year chart of the Dow Jones is the outcome every time it touches the top of its 100-year ascending channel:

Each time the top of this giant channel has been tested, it has resulted in a long and/or unusually aggressive decline. In 2021, the Dow Jones index exceeded its 100-year channel for about 12 months (until April/May 2022).

This raises the question whether aggressive selling can be expected after 2023 or 2024? The one major difference between the events in 1929 and 2000 is that the rally to the top of the canal was a very steep, multi-year rally. The form differs significantly in the period 2019-2023. This makes it doubtful that the test of resistance in the period 2023-2024 will cause a violent sell-off.

INSIGHT – We partially agree with this Dow Jones analysis. Short term, the 2024 rally looks extended. However, we need to step away from short-term chart analysis to see the big picture. In the grand scheme of things, given the analysis outlined in this article, a major market selloff does not appear to be imminent. A healthy and regular retreat is definitely on the cards in 2024.

Dow Jones 100-year chart: separate phases

5 different phases are visible on the 100-year Dow Jones chart:

Basically, between 1932 and 1966, the Dow Jones index rose tenfold. Buying in 1966 would have been catastrophic for one’s portfolio. This is because the Dow was trading in the upper part of its long-term channel. The Dow corrected combined with sideways trading during 2 decades after which it tested support levels several times. From 1984, the Dow went almost in one straight line until the year 2000. Between 2000 and 2013, the Dow traded in a wide range. In 2013, a triple top breakout occurred. This is probably when the stock bull market started, not March 2009.

At the time of this article’s last update, which is mid-2024, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is trading in its upper band of its long-term rising channel.

INSIGHT – What is clear from this chart is that touching the top of the 100-year channel did not trigger a major sell-off, as it has in the past. This has not happened before in history. While the Dow Jones may continue to move at or above its 100-year channel for a few more years, it won’t last forever.

This could mean that large-cap stocks are signaling a structural change, possibly ushering in a period of above-average inflation (eventually perhaps leading to a period of hyperinflation).

We believe that the top of this rising channel could be tested to 7 years, which lines up ‘nicely’ with the secular bearish turning point time frame starting in 2028

Dow Jones Chart: Dominant Trends

In this section we look at the past 35 as well as 10 years of the Dow Jones 100 year chart pattern

As seen, the Dow Jones index was able to clear the 100-year channel in March 2021. However, it fell back into its channel in April 2022. Since then, the bias has been bullish with a tendency to keep moving towards the resistance line of the 100-year channel. In 2024, the Dow Jones even exceeded the top of its 100-year channel.

If we zoom in even more and look at the last 7 years, we see how resistance of the 100-year channel was tested in mid-August 2022. The subsequent move was interesting: a continued attempt to move higher and go back to the top of the channel.

This view may indicate that a topping pattern is in the making. However, the rally to the top of the canal was not as steep as in the 20s and 90s. The recovery after the Corona crash was steep, but the Dow Jones is slowly making its way higher since 2017.

INSIGHT – All of this suggests that the Dow Jones may consolidate for a while; the expectation of an imminent crash similar to that of 1929 or 2001/2 is probably low.

Dow Jones chart over 50 years

This next chart view brings 50 years of Dow Jones into focus. There is a bit more upside potential in the coming years according to this chart.

We wrote in 2023: “While the 100-year chart suggested a local top of around 38,000, this chart view could bring the Dow Jones closer to 40,000 points by next summer.” This has proven to be a very accurate prediction.

INSIGHT – The Dow Jones broke out of a long-term base pattern, it did so in 2024. More upside potential, long term, can reasonably be expected.

Dow Jones chart on 20 years

For the 20-year chart, which comes with some very interesting insights, we copy a quote from another Dow Jones article we recently wrote Dow Jones Long Term Chart On 20 Years:

Combining the insights from the Dow Jones charts +20 years with the one below, we conclude that there is a high probability that the Dow Jones will move to 37k points in the first half of 2024 (where it is the ‘end of the risk off structure’ and also the 100-year channel). We can reasonably expect a quick pullback, followed by a secular breakout later in 2024 or 2025. This is how we combine insights from the multiple timeframes with the Dow Jones long-term 20-year chart.

The secular breakout of the Dow Jones is 36k points. This would conclude a risk-off period. If history is a guide, the current risk-off period should end soon.

This is what we wrote in 2023:

We expect the Dow Jones to complete its consolidation in 2023. This should open the door for a breakout in early 2024. We need to remain cautious in the summer of 2024. One potential scenario is a breakout above 36k points in early 2024, followed by a strong rally and a retest of 36k points. Note that we can derive other scenarios from our mapping and timeline analysis, but we prefer to revisit the scenarios in early 2024.

Dow Jones price action in 2024 happened exactly as predicted in 2023.

IMPORTANT – In March 2021, the Dow Jones cleared the top of its 100-year channel about 31.7k points. This price point will henceforth have an above-average importance. Evidence of this was confirmed in October 2023, when the Dow Jones hit 32.4k as support (nearly 31.7k).

In short, we expect the Dow Jones to operate around 3 very important price points in 2024: 31.7k as solid support, 36k points as a secular breakout (also resistance), 40k points as a strong and rounded number.

Concluding notes

Note that the Dow Jones Industrials Index was founded on February 16, 1885, as per Wikipedia. The index tracks 30 large publicly held companies based in the United States.

Check out the Dow Jones sources and their X-feed.