Once BTC clears $69k on a 3 to 5 day closing basis, it will be an epic breakout. This outcome with the highest probability is that it will happen in a few months from now.
Insights from this article are based on our most recent Bitcoin price forecast, available in the public domain.
CLUE – We recommend readers to check out the Bitcoin forecast page mentioned above as it contains many insights on Bitcoin’s expected trend as well as support and buy the dip levels.
Bitcoin price insight #1. The longest term trend line
Although we are interested in short-term Bitcoin price insights, mainly for August 2024 we should always start with the higher time frames.
When analyzing Bitcoin’s price, it is essential to take a top-down approach.
This is because of this chart dynamic: the longer a trendline, the more dominant.
What we see on Bitcoin’s longest time frame is that in the summer of 2022, BTC fell below its longest trend line for the first time in 9 years! In May 2024, BTC touched this longest trendline as resistance. This is significant because it may indicate that the pace of progress (in the larger scheme of things) is slowing down.
Although this long-term trend line creates a very important dynamic on Bitcoin’s chart, it does not help us understand the short time frame.
Bitcoin price insight #2. Another long-term trend line
While the longest trend line since 2015 was breached about 2 years ago, the one that originated in 2017 is respected.
This is significant, as it means that Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend, an insight that crypto enthusiasts will love and which contrasts with the somehow concerning conclusion from the chart shown above.
In the short term, this means that this trend line can be tested again, in case markets come under pressure, which could happen in August 2024.
Bitcoin price insight #3. Why $69k is a critical level
Zooming in a bit, we see that a strong uptrend started in October 2023, leaving an uptrend line uninterrupted until June 2024.
What is important to realize is the price point that a breakdown indicates, in this particular case around $68k, can be retested once or twice.
We use $69k as THE key price point for BTC, certainly in the short term.
Remember, any price point as resistance can be exceeded for 3, 5, 8 days, but the price can fall, causing a failed breakout. So, if BTC moves above $69k and stays there for at least 8 consecutive days, it will be a breakout.
This is unlikely to happen in August 2024. However, never say ‘never’ in financial markets.
Bitcoin price insight #4. What ‘event’ could create another dump?
Since April, Bitcoin has experienced several spills:
April – war in the Middle East (fades soon after). May – war in Ukraine (fades soon after). July – Bitcoin is dumped into the market by Germany and MtGox.
What could create another dump in the price of Bitcoin in August is broad market weakness. This is probably because there is a high probability volatility window on the timeline. We will know by mid-August if the timeline will create volatility in markets.
Bitcoin price insight #5. Three month cycles
Finally, the last relevant insight for August 2024 comes from Bitcoin’s 3-month cycle chart.
What stands out on this chart is this:
A descending trend line since March, tested 3 times, possible to be tested again in August or September, around $52k. Resisting at $69k. One critical week in August 2024.
Note – there is one more critical week in October.
So, we cannot get too bullish in the short term until and unless $69k is broken upwards for at least 8 consecutive days. This is what this 3-month cycle chart teaches us.
The yellow vertical lines on the last chart are critical timeline insights.
In particular, our research has revealed two specific weeks in the coming 3 months that will give us decisive information on the state and future of crypto markets.
Want to find out the exact dates and weeks? Our research insights are available in this article (login required) in the restricted area of our website: Where and When Bitcoin Could Bottom: Price and Timing Targets
Disclaimer for Uncirculars, with a Touch of Personality:
While we love diving into the exciting world of crypto here at Uncirculars, remember that this post, and all our content, is purely for your information and exploration. Think of it as your crypto compass, pointing you in the right direction to do your own research and make informed decisions.
No legal, tax, investment, or financial advice should be inferred from these pixels. We’re not fortune tellers or stockbrokers, just passionate crypto enthusiasts sharing our knowledge.
And just like that rollercoaster ride in your favorite DeFi protocol, past performance isn’t a guarantee of future thrills. The value of crypto assets can be as unpredictable as a moon landing, so buckle up and do your due diligence before taking the plunge.
Ultimately, any crypto adventure you embark on is yours alone. We’re just happy to be your crypto companion, cheering you on from the sidelines (and maybe sharing some snacks along the way). So research, explore, and remember, with a little knowledge and a lot of curiosity, you can navigate the crypto cosmos like a pro!
UnCirculars – Cutting through the noise, delivering unbiased crypto news
