Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions for 2024

Now that those two high-profile cases are out of the way, many cryptocurrency executives see this as a chance to move forward and draw a line under the bad behavior of two of the industry’s poster children.

With fervor returning to the crypto markets, industry executives are calling the start of a new bull run, based mainly on two things – the bitcoin “halving” and the potential approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the US

The halving, which happens every four years, is an event written into bitcoin’s code. The rewards that so-called miners get for mining bitcoin are cut in half. This puts a cap on the supply of bitcoin, of which there will only be 21 million. In previous price cycles, halvings preceded an increase in the price of bitcoin.

Meanwhile, there is growing excitement that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve the first ever bitcoin ETF, after years of opposition. This would mean that investors could buy a product that follows the price of bitcoin, without going to an exchange and holding the digital currency directly. The industry hopes that this will attract a wider variety of investors, and especially large institutional investors.

With all this excitement comes some rather bold predictions about bitcoin’s price. Here is a selection of some of them.

In 2022, Mark Mobius correctly predicted that bitcoin would fall to $20,000 when it traded above $28,000. He then had a $10,000 price call, which he held on to in 2023. However, this did not materialize as bitcoin recovered.

For 2024, Mobius told CNBC that bitcoin could reach $60,000 by the end of the year.

“No reason for that prediction,” Mobius said, except that a bitcoin ETF seems likely and “it has increased interest” in the cryptocurrency.

Youwei Yang, chief economist of crypto-mining company Bit Mining, believes that bitcoin could reach a peak of $75,000 by 2024.

Yang attributes the expected price rise to a bitcoin ETF being approved, leading to higher institutional investment in bitcoin, as well as May 2024’s bitcoin halving, which will result in bitcoin supply being limited.

“I expect the Bitcoin to trade around $25K to $75K in 2024, and $45K to $130K in 2025,” Yang said in an emailed note.

“While high prices are possible, not all investors will profit due to market volatility and the human tendencies of fear and greed.”

Yang said the ETF approval remains the biggest story for bitcoin in 2024 – although investors should exercise some caution about timing given the wounds left by collapses of major crypto firms such as Luna and FTX, and as it is a election year is when the topic of crypto is likely to become more of a political issue.

“Timing the market is difficult, but a gradual approach—building in bear markets and taking profits in bull markets—can be a more effective strategy for those who don’t have early accumulations.”

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the digital asset landscape is poised for “significant change” in 2024, driven by the possible approval of bitcoin ETFs in the US

“This long-awaited development is poised to expand the investor base for cryptocurrencies and integrate them more closely with traditional financial markets,” Butterfill told CNBC via email.

“Estimates suggest that a 20% investment increase of operating assets under management (about US$3 billion) could potentially push Bitcoin prices up to US$80,000.”

Meanwhile, the scenario of central banks cutting interest rates could also “play a decisive role” in moving bitcoin higher, Butterfill added.

The market will also look at factors beyond the halving – which it says is already priced into bitcoin – that could further affect the price of the digital currency.

“So while the halving is a familiar event, other elements, particularly the potential for interest rate cuts, are likely to be significant in shaping Bitcoin’s price going forward,” Butterfill said.

Antoni Trenchev, a well-known bitcoin bull and co-founder of Nexo, a cryptocurrency exchange, believes bitcoin could reach $100,000 in 2024.

In 2022, he called for bitcoin to reach $100,000, but that didn’t happen. Instead, the price of bitcoin collapsed that year. He refrained from making any further price predictions.

But in a note in December, Trenchev restored his $100,000 call for 2024, citing the halving and potential approval of several bitcoin ETFs.

“My expectation for 2024 is that the twin-turbo boost from the Bitcoin halving and spot ETF approval should propel Bitcoin to $100,000, with the prospect of further highs in 2025,” Trenchev said in a note. “The road to $100,000 will be full of unexpected pitfalls and double-digit declines like Bitcoin.”

Trenchev added that the biggest gains will come from digital tokens and projects “that aren’t even on the radar yet.”

In November, Standard Chartered doubled down on its $100,000 call for bitcoin made in April. The bank said it would be driven by the approval of numerous ETFs.

The halving will also support bitcoin, the bank said.

In 2022, University of Sussex finance professor Carol Alexander had a pretty successful run at predicting bitcoin’s future price.

She predicted bitcoin would slide to $10,000 in 2022. That year, bitcoin fell as low as about $15,480, according to CoinDesk data. For 2023, Alexander said that bitcoin would rise as high as $50,000. Bitcoin hit an annual high of around $44,700 in early December.

Alexander told CNBC that bitcoin will trade in the $40,000 to $55,000 range during the first quarter of 2024, due to “professional traders creating volatility.”

The next phase will depend on when the US Securities and Exchange Commission settles charges against Coinbase and Binance, which may be required before approval of a bitcoin ETF, according to Alexander, echoing other commentators. The SEC sued both Coinbase and Binance in 2023.

Alexander said that the settlement of those charges will likely be in the second or third quarter, after which ETFs will be approved and bitcoin’s price will rise to $70,000, a new all-time high.

The price thereafter depends on the capabilities of the ETF providers, such as Blackrock and Fidelity, “to equip their market makers not only to create the ETFs, but also to defend price manipulations” on exchanges that create “excessive volatility” .

“Before the end of 2024, the price could exceed $100,000, but only if Blackrock and Fidelity market maker algorithms have the ability to reduce volatility,” concluded Alexander.

Matrixport, which bills itself as a crypto-financial services firm, released a note in November predicting that bitcoin will reach $63,140 by April 2024 and $125,000 by the end of next year.

“Based on our inflation model, the macro environment is expected to remain a robust tailwind for crypto. Another decline in inflation is expected, prompting the Federal Reserve to likely initiate interest rate cuts,” Matrixport said in its report.

“Combined with geopolitical crosscurrents, this healthy dose of monetary support should propel Bitcoin to new highs in 2024.”

Many commentators see the easing of monetary policy as supportive for bitcoin, which is considered a risky asset. Meanwhile, some see bitcoin as a kind of “safe haven” asset to pour money into in times of geopolitical strife, although many disagree with this theory.

Venture capital CoinFund has one of the highest price calls for bitcoin for 2024.

“Bitcoin has a strong inverse correlation with the dollar and real yields, and both are going down right now,” Seth Ginns, managing partner at CoinFund, told CNBC via email. “We also expect the follow-on inflows to the launch of the BTC spot ETF, as well as growing excitement over the likely approval of ETH (ether) spot ETFs later in 2024, to be very significant.”

Ginns added that he thinks the industry is in the process of “regulatory normalization.”

Ginns said bitcoin could hit $1 million per coin “in this next cycle,” but said a more “reasonable expectation” for 2024 would see bitcoin between $250,000 and $500,000.