Bitcoin (BTC) dominance broke above 60% this week, ending an eight-month accumulation phase and targeting the 66% cycle high from June 2025. The breakout suggests that capital is flowing back into Bitcoin and away from altcoins.
Momentum indicators on both weekly and daily timeframes confirm the move, while the Altcoin Season Index stands at 37. Together, these signals suggest that an altseason will not arrive before the end of 2026.
Bitcoin dominance weekly and daily charts confirm a clean breakout
The weekly chart of Bitcoin dominance closed at 60.66%, pushing out of the green accumulation box that held price between August 2025 and April 2026. That range followed the June 2025 peak at 66.06%, when BTC.D rejected from its multi-year ascending channel.
Before the accumulation, Bitcoin Dominance respected both the ascending channel and its median for more than two years. The underlying structure remains bullish, and the recent breakout above the 0.236 Fibonacci level at 59.63% reopens the path to the 0 Fib at 66.06%.
On the daily time frame, Bitcoin Dominance scored its first clean move out of the 58% to 60% range that lasted for nearly eight months. Price is now testing the resistance box around 61%, with RSI overbought for the first time since October 2025. MACD is also turning green, with rising histogram bars confirming momentum.
A close above 61% would clear the final barrier before the 66.06% target. Such a move would add another 5 percentage points to Bitcoin dominance and strip capital from altcoins. A previous BeInCrypto analysis marked this level as the cycle line in the sand.
ETH BTC Chart Keeps Altseason Hopes Alive, But Kaleo Admits A Caveat
Popular analyst Crypto Kaleo shared a long-term ETH/BTC chart showing the pair pushing against a descending trendline that has capped every rally since 2017. The current reading of 0.02980 sits just above the trendline, and Kaleo projects a measured move higher to the green 0.055 zone and beyond.
“In previous bull markets, alts didn’t really break out until Bitcoin recovered and hit new all-time highs. With the fallout in defi still ongoing, I think there’s a good chance this trend will continue. Still a good place to stack high conviction plays, but probably needs a little more patience for a real ‘alt season’.”
His own framework contains the caveat that sinks the bullish case. Altcoins historically need Bitcoin at fresh highs before pivoting, and BTC is trading well below its cycle peak, with several traders calling for further downside until late 2026. Without a Bitcoin leg higher, the ETH/BTC base remains stuck.
Ben Cowen laid out a similar view in a recent BeInCrypto analysis, arguing that 2026 mirrors the late-cycle 2019 pattern where altcoins are quietly bleeding against Bitcoin.
Altcoin Season Index at 37 closes the door on a near-term rotation
The Altcoin Season Index currently reads 37, firmly within Bitcoin Season territory. Altseason is defined as a reading of 75 or higher, and the current value is about half that threshold. The reading confirms what Bitcoin Dominance is already showing, with altcoins not outperforming Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
The historical chart of the index going back to July 2022 paints an even starker picture. Sustained altseasons were rare and short-lived rises above 75, while the baseline regime was neutral or Bitcoin accommodative for most of the four-year window.
That structural pattern fits the current setup. With Bitcoin dominance breaking out, ETH/BTC capped a descending trendline, and the Altcoin Season Index near multi-month lows, the likelihood of a broad altseason before the end of 2026 seems low. A Bitcoin price decline until late 2026, which several analysts now expect, will add to the pain for altcoin holders who are experiencing losses against both BTC and the dollar.
The thesis breaks only if Bitcoin Dominance rejects the 61% resistance box and closes below 59.63% weekly, which will reopen the door for a late-year rotation.
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