Bitcoin Rises After Trump’s “Great Progress” Comment, Could Break 5-Month Losing Streak

Bitcoin saw a small bump on Monday morning, rising along with the broader market, following President Trump’s comments that “great progress has been made” in talks with Iran, while also posting that if no deal is reached on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the US will “completely wipe out” Iran’s energy infrastructure and Kharg Island.

Bitcoin crossed $68,000 early Monday morning and rose 1% in March. With one day to go, it could now end the month in the green, snapping its five-month losing streak, CoinGlass data shows.

Still, the overall sentiment is cautious, as macro and geopolitical factors remain the main drivers of bitcoin’s price, at least in the short term.

Sidrah Fariq, global head of retail at Deribit, told Sherwood News that markets remain uncertain amid mixed signals from the Trump administration on the situation in Iran. In turn, she said, investor response has been cautious and fragmented.

“BTC is still waiting for a clear catalyst to break through the 80K level. On Deribit, put premium continues to trade richer than calls on tenors, reflecting continued demand for downside protection. Trader gamma remains positive in the 65K-70K range, suggesting traders are likely to buy dips and add selling periods relatively speaking, price action will remain in the $65,000 to $74 range. 000. If we get to a truce, bitcoin could tear higher.

For now, however, bitcoin is marching to the beat of the news and is stuck in the tight range it’s been trading in for weeks, with no extreme movement in either direction.

Danny Nelson, a research analyst at Bitwise, told Sherwood that while bitcoin has performed well since the start of the conflict (up nearly 1%, while the S&P 500 is down more than 6%), its intraday price moves with the news.

Nelson said that when Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants on March 21, bitcoin immediately fell 2.6% — and when he backed off the threat on March 23, it jumped 4%.

“If this war escalates and stops shipping through not only Hormuz, but also the Suez Canal (which could threaten Iranian-backed Houthis), it could cause a recession. This worst-case scenario dampens the market for risk-on assets, like bitcoin. It makes establishing a base above $70K much more difficult. This dynamic war will weigh on bitcoin,” Nelson said.

Stephen Wundke, director of strategy and revenue at Algoz, agreed, telling Sherwood that given the global uncertainty surrounding the Iran war and the effects of oil and gas shortages, it is impossible to see big gains for BTC.

“Currently, the macro conditions make it very difficult. On the positive side, BTC has retested recent lows and found a way to bounce. However, trading volumes are so thin that moves may be slightly more exaggerated than normal,” Wundke said.

Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs saw their first weekly outflow since the war began, with an outflow of $296.1 million last week, according to SoSoValue.

“This matters because ETF demand has driven part of the recovery narrative. A reversal here shifts the burden back to coal demand and short covering,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network. Misir added that one week of outflows does not define a trend.

“Two or three would. For now, bitcoin still has room to recover as macro stress eases, but the market needs stronger spot demand to turn a tactical bounce into a durable recovery,” he said.

At the same time, bitcoin ETFs are also set to end the month with $1.1 billion in inflows, their first monthly inflow since October 2025. While this volume is a far cry from the bombastic $3 billion to $6 billion monthly inflows of the past, it reflects renewed (yet muted) institutional interest.

As Misir put it, the crypto tape tells a cautious story and “macro is still in command.”

“Beneath the surface, the market is not broken, although it is still thin. Bitcoin sits at the lower end of the $60K-$70K new-buyer cost base range, where stock accumulation is visible, but still lighter than the stronger bases seen before previous durable recovery. This makes the setup constructive in form, not yet in depth,” Misir said.