In Bitcoin price news, a total of $7.5Bn in BTC and ETH options contracts on Deribit will expire on May 29, 2026. Bitcoin price accounts for $6.2Bn across 84,112 contracts, while Ethereum accounts for $1.29Bn across 643,639 contracts.
This expiration is smaller than April’s $9.87 billion, with Bitcoin trading at $73,350 and Ethereum at $2,003, both below their Max Pain levels of $75,000 and $2,200 respectively.
Bitcoin’s Put/Call ratio is 0.84, indicating a slightly bullish stance, while Ethereum’s is 0.74, although many calls are now out of the money due to recent price declines.
Additionally, institutional ETF sales since May 14 have totaled $2 billion, further distancing both assets from their Max Pain targets ahead of the settlement.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC and ETH Options Expires: The $7.5 Billion Hypothetical Crash and Maximum Pain Mechanics
Max Pain is the strike price at which the total open interest in options results in the maximum loss for buyers and the minimum payout for sellers at expiration.
As traders hedge their positions in the final hours of a monthly settlement, their activity can drive prices to this level.
For Bitcoin, the $75,000 Max Pain is $1,650 above the current price, meaning traders will experience buying pressure shortly below that level. For Ethereum, the $2,200 Max Pain is supported by over 70,000 puts, creating a strong liquidity node.
Analysts note that Bitcoin has fallen below its key Gamma exposure zone, weakening support from open interest.
Implied volatility remains low, with May contracts at around 20%, suggesting major participants are not hedging aggressively and betting on support levels rather than a deeper decline.
Open interest spread: where call and put walls are concentrated heading into expiration
Bitcoin’s open interest shows the heaviest call concentration between $80,000 and $85,000, which is now out of the money at $73,350, reducing call side gamma that would typically stabilize trader hedging flow. The $75,000 strike has become the closest point of concentration as settlement nears.
For Ethereum, the $2,200 strike has more than 70,000 puts, creating a significant liquidity node that serves as a ceiling for any recovery before the expiration.
The $2,500 and $3,000 strikes have call activity, but are far from the current $2,003 spot price. Additionally, the $2,000 strike is identified as a gamma concentration point that provides both psychological and mechanical support.
Overall, the 0.84 Put/Call ratio for Bitcoin and 0.74 for Ethereum indicates a bullish position despite recent price declines. The upcoming June quarterly expiration, which holds about 24% of remaining open interest, will be the next major derivative event after today’s settlement.
EXPLORE: Bitcoin ETF Inflows and Leverage Ratios: What the Data Shows
Macro background: How ETF outflows and institutional selling frame the directional risk of the expiration
The $2 billion in institutional ETF selling since May 14 pushes both assets below their Max Pain levels before expiration. While there was some institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, that bid reversed sharply in the two weeks leading up to today’s settlement.
Such significant ETF outflows typically impede spot price recovery as redemption-driven selling pressure exceeds trader hedging flows.
Additionally, rising Treasury yields have hampered crypto rallies by raising the discount rate for risk assets and attracting capital to fixed-income alternatives.
With implied volatility (IV) below 40% despite Bitcoin’s decline, the options market does not expect a rise in volatility, meaning that the expiration date will largely determine whether the June gamma structure turns bullish or bearish.
The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All share prices are quoted at the time of writing.
About the author
Tim Baker is a senior market analyst at Tokenist with over a decade of experience educating readers about traditional finance, crypto and DeFi. A former equity researcher turned chain analyst, Tim specializes in regulatory framework shifts and institutional DeFi adoption. His work focuses on distilling complex liquidity cycles and the macro environment into actionable intelligence for the modern DIY investor.
Disclaimer for Uncirculars, with a Touch of Personality:
While we love diving into the exciting world of crypto here at Uncirculars, remember that this post, and all our content, is purely for your information and exploration. Think of it as your crypto compass, pointing you in the right direction to do your own research and make informed decisions.
No legal, tax, investment, or financial advice should be inferred from these pixels. We’re not fortune tellers or stockbrokers, just passionate crypto enthusiasts sharing our knowledge.
And just like that rollercoaster ride in your favorite DeFi protocol, past performance isn’t a guarantee of future thrills. The value of crypto assets can be as unpredictable as a moon landing, so buckle up and do your due diligence before taking the plunge.
Ultimately, any crypto adventure you embark on is yours alone. We’re just happy to be your crypto companion, cheering you on from the sidelines (and maybe sharing some snacks along the way). So research, explore, and remember, with a little knowledge and a lot of curiosity, you can navigate the crypto cosmos like a pro!
UnCirculars – Cutting through the noise, delivering unbiased crypto news
