Bitcoin (BTC) stalls below $76,000, trading cautiously on Wednesday after losing support from key exponential moving averages (EMAs). Institutional demand continues to fade with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording steady outflows since mid-May. In addition, uncertainty in the Middle East is growing as Iran says new US strikes have violated the ceasefire, fueling geopolitical risks and keeping risk appetite subdued.
Sale continues
Institutional demand has continued to fade so far this week. SoSoValue data showed the spot ETFs recorded outflows of $333.71 million on Tuesday, marking the seventh consecutive day of withdrawals since mid-May. Additionally, the weekly data shows steady institutional selling, totaling $2.26 billion over the past two weeks. If this trend continues this week, BTC could see further correction.
US attacks are complicating efforts to end the war
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened retaliation on Tuesday after the US carried out strikes on southern Iran, described by the US Central Command as “self-defense”.
“Iran said the US violated a ceasefire by striking targets near the disputed Strait of Hormuz, potentially complicating efforts to end the war,” Reuters reported.
Israel hit Lebanon with more than 120 airstrikes on Tuesday in one of the heaviest days of bombing in weeks, Lebanese security sources said. Iran has sought an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon as part of any deal.
However, negotiations between the US and Iran on ending the war in the Middle East and reopening the Strait of Hormuz continue through mediators.
These mixed developments are keeping Bitcoin sentiment cautious as of Wednesday, limiting investors’ appetite for risk and limiting the Crypto King’s upward momentum.
Print in any direction
Traders should be cautious as the K33 Research reported that BTC’s perpetual market conditions remain relatively muted, with few notable changes over the past week.
The chart below shows that funding rates have been trending higher over the past week, with the annualized 7-day average rising to 5.3% on Tuesday, the highest level since January. Meanwhile, open interest has generally remained stable, fluctuating between 285,000 and 300,000 BTC throughout the week.
“A significant portion of the open interest growth seen over the past three months was established during the negative funding system, leaving the market still vulnerable to pressure in either direction,” K33’s research analyst noted.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC closes below key EMAs
Bitcoin price is trading below $76,000 on Wednesday after closing below the key 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which were clustered between around $76,720 and $76,840 the previous day. BTC maintains a corrective-to-bearish tone in the near term as price slips below key EMAs.
The relative strength index (RSI) sits in the low 40s, indicating mild but not extreme downward momentum, while the moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, reinforcing that recent pullbacks have not been strong and price remains limited below these EMAs.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA near $76,720, followed by the 100-day EMA at around $76,840, with a stronger barrier at the 50% retracement (drawn from the January high to the February low) around $78,962. Above that, the 200-day EMA at $81,501 and the horizontal level at $84,410 form a higher resistance band.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around $74,487, before an upward trendline support near $71,541, with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $68,950 expected to act as a deeper structural floor as selling pressure accelerates.
(The technical analysis of this story was written using an AI tool.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQ
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any person, group or entity, eliminating the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also consider Ethereum a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking takes place. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and thus an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset they represent. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is tied to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main purpose of stablecoins is to provide an on/off for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value, as cryptocurrencies are generally subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market cap to the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies combined. This gives a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically occurs before and during a bull run, in which investors turn to invest in relatively stable and high market cap cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means investors shift their capital and/or profits to altcoins in search of higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
Disclaimer for Uncirculars, with a Touch of Personality:
While we love diving into the exciting world of crypto here at Uncirculars, remember that this post, and all our content, is purely for your information and exploration. Think of it as your crypto compass, pointing you in the right direction to do your own research and make informed decisions.
No legal, tax, investment, or financial advice should be inferred from these pixels. We’re not fortune tellers or stockbrokers, just passionate crypto enthusiasts sharing our knowledge.
And just like that rollercoaster ride in your favorite DeFi protocol, past performance isn’t a guarantee of future thrills. The value of crypto assets can be as unpredictable as a moon landing, so buckle up and do your due diligence before taking the plunge.
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