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Home Crypto News & Analysis Market Overview & Trends

How will upcoming halving affect BTC performance?

by Daniel Kim
July 9, 2024
in Market Overview & Trends
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How will upcoming halving affect BTC performance?
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Experts in the cryptocurrency market are trying to predict where Bitcoin (BTC) will go in the coming months and years, especially since the leading digital asset has once again climbed above the $20,000 psychological threshold since the beginning of 2023.

The next halving event for the flagship digital currency is scheduled for 2024 and is one of the events that could dramatically ‘push’ the price of Bitcoin, according to many experts and advocates, which could have a significant impact.

Bitcoin’s fourth halving event, or the fourth protocol-designed 50% reduction in block rewards occurs every 210,000 blocks or approximately every four years. The next halving event is estimated to occur around May 4, 2024, when Bitcoin reaches 840,000 blocks.

Why Investors Are Bullish for the Next Bitcoin Halving

After the third halving event on May 11, 2020, miners were paid 6.25 Bitcoins for each Bitcoin block mined. With an average of 144 blocks generated every 24 hours, this equates to around 900 Bitcoin being issued and rewarded every day.

By design of the Bitcoin blockchain, this reward will be “halved” and reduced to 3,125 BTC per block at the fourth halving event. If the average number of blocks mined each day stays roughly the same, around 450 BTC will be created each day.

When attempting to predict how Bitcoin’s price will move in the future, history can be a valuable tool in determining the future direction of prices, which is especially true when considering the fact that Bitcoin’s value since the initial half-life increased by nearly 1,000 times. .

Along these lines, Finbold analyzed industry experts on their Bitcoin outlook and fundamentals that are likely to determine the asset’s performance beyond 2025 and beyond.

21 million BTC

With the mining of block ‘730002’ by SBI Crypto on April 1, 2022, it became clear that only 2 million BTC (out of a total of 21 million) are yet to be issued. In turn, price increases can occur as a natural outcome of reduced supply and increased demand.

At the same time, positive developments, such as payments giant VISA (NYSE: V ) partnering with leading crypto payment platform Wirex to launch crypto-enabled debit and prepaid cards for Bitcoin and other cryptos in more than 40 countries, are expected to have a positive impact on digital asset prices in the future.

Bitcoin halving to pump BTC price

Well-known pseudonymous crypto trading expert PlanB announced in October that “the next Bitcoin halving is coming, and IMO will pump BTC (again),” while posting chart analysis of the decentralized finance (DeFi) asset’s past price movements and future predictions.

The chart conforms to a stock-to-flow (S2F) live model, which uses the concept of scarcity to measure Bitcoin’s value and speculate on its potential future price. After Bitcoin’s third halving event in May 2020, the chart model advocated by PlanB received a significant amount of attention from many sources.

PlanB expects Bitcoin to pump after halving. Source: PlanB

PlanB’s prediction is in line with that of cryptocurrency trader and analyst Josh Rager, who predicted a massive Bitcoin boom after the halving in 2024. Rager said that “the real party won’t start until 2024.”

Reminder that Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate for the next year

The real party won’t start until 2024 after Bitcoin halving

There will be some good opportunities with both Bitcoin and alts from bounce

Stay vigilant and take the market week by week https://t.co/kQuXqckwDC

— Rager 📈 (@Rager) September 14, 2022

The analyst referred to his tweet on August 25 in which he predicted that Bitcoin’s growth trajectory after the halving events will be repeated in the 2024 boom.

Why do these predictions matter?

After a halving, prices tend to rise steadily and significantly over the following years, peaking about a year and a half later. In the event that the same thing takes place with the subsequent one, it will be good news for Bitcoin investors.

Interestingly, the above analysis goes along with the predictions of Bloomberg senior commodities expert Mike McGlone, who earlier in late January said that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 sometime around the next halving or by 2025.

McGlone maintains his famously optimistic stance for the long term, previously saying that Bitcoin could outperform gold as its top rival in the future. According to him:

“I fully expect Bitcoin to get to $100,000 in the next few years, probably around the halving, maybe 2025.”

BTC price analysis

At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $22,117 as it appears to hold support above the $22,000 price level on February 15th. The total market capitalization is $420.8 billion, with a $20.7 billion trading volume in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin 1-day price chart. Source: Finbold

Bitcoin’s technical analysis on TradingView is mainly bearish, with the summary matching the ‘sell’ sentiment at nine while moving averages for the ‘strong sell’ at 8. Oscillators point to ‘neutral’ with 8.

1-month Bitcoin meters. Source: TradingView

Despite the fall in price in February, it is worth noting that one of Bitcoin’s key technical indicators, the Rainbow relative strength index (RSI), turned green for the first time on February 12th after an extensive correction, which ‘ suggesting long-term bullish momentum. .

Price forecast 2025

Notably, Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling personal finance book ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad’, Kiyosaki has labeled Bitcoin as one of the three “hottest topics on earth” alongside silver and gold, predicting that BTC will reach $500,000 by 2025.

Meanwhile, in an exclusive industry report by Finbold, where experts weighed in on what to expect for Bitcoin in 2023, Stefan Ristic, a crypto miner who runs BitcoinMiningSoftware.com, expects Bitcoin halving in 2024 as a major catalyst will be setting up for a possible bull run in late 2024 to 2025.

Price forecast 2030

According to the average price forecast provided by Finder’s panel of fintech specialists in their January 2023 report, they predict that BTC will reach $77,492 by 2025 and $188,451 by 2030.

Bitcoin 2025 and 2030 Price Predictions. Source: Finder

There are those in the cryptocurrency industry who are optimistic about Bitcoin’s valuation in 2030. The Winklevoss twins, who founded the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, predict that Bitcoin’s value will reach $500,000 by 2030. According to the brothers, the flagship -cryptocurrency replaced gold as the store of value.

According to NDAX CEO Bilal Hammoud, Bitcoin’s price will reach $500,000 by 2030. He thinks the target could be set higher, but he predicts that rising interest rates will affect the trajectory.

Finally, Finbold asked ChatGPT to share Bitcoin’s possible price by 2030, based on various metrics, such as traditional price movements and technical analysis, among others.

Given the considerable market volatility and regulatory uncertainty, the tool admits that it is difficult to estimate the price of Bitcoin in the long term. However, the AI-based platform argues that Bitcoin still has the ability to grow in the coming years due to developing markets and widespread adoption of the cryptocurrency.

“As the cryptocurrency market matures and more people become aware of the potential of digital currencies, Bitcoin is likely to become more widely accepted, and its value will continue to rise,” ChatGPT said.

Closure

The value of Bitcoin is still expected to rise, as shown by the price estimates provided by the aforementioned experts and observers, giving investors a reason to keep their faith in the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin has remained one of the most popular choices for long-term investments in the cryptocurrency market, even though its price is subject to significant fluctuations due to its high degree of volatility.

Considering that no one can predict with absolute certainty where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will end up by the end of this year, it is even more difficult to make predictions over the next seven years.

Disclaimer: The content on this website should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When you invest, your capital is at risk.

Disclaimer for Uncirculars, with a Touch of Personality:

While we love diving into the exciting world of crypto here at Uncirculars, remember that this post, and all our content, is purely for your information and exploration. Think of it as your crypto compass, pointing you in the right direction to do your own research and make informed decisions.

No legal, tax, investment, or financial advice should be inferred from these pixels. We’re not fortune tellers or stockbrokers, just passionate crypto enthusiasts sharing our knowledge.

And just like that rollercoaster ride in your favorite DeFi protocol, past performance isn’t a guarantee of future thrills. The value of crypto assets can be as unpredictable as a moon landing, so buckle up and do your due diligence before taking the plunge.

Ultimately, any crypto adventure you embark on is yours alone. We’re just happy to be your crypto companion, cheering you on from the sidelines (and maybe sharing some snacks along the way). So research, explore, and remember, with a little knowledge and a lot of curiosity, you can navigate the crypto cosmos like a pro!

UnCirculars – Cutting through the noise, delivering unbiased crypto news

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Daniel Kim

Daniel Kim

Complex concepts lose their intimidating edge when spun into captivating narratives. Daniel's talent for clear storytelling transforms dry data and technical jargon into engaging content that keeps you informed and entertained.

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