Bitcoin swings but bounces back from monthly low

Bitcoin ended a tumultuous week with a significant recovery, following indications of a peace deal between the US and Iran that eased some of the tension on global markets.

The recent recovery came after a period of declines influenced by assertive comments from the central bank, concerns about oil market disruptions and a lack of enthusiasm for riskier assets.

The cryptocurrency markets bounced back, gaining about $75 billion in value after comments from US President Donald Trump on Saturday, indicating that a peace deal with Iran is imminent.

Bitcoin prices fell to a five-week low of $74,250 on Saturday, according to TradingView. The asset recovered to reach the 50-day exponential moving average at $77,000 in early trading on Sunday, then rose above that level on Monday.

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency traders have begun to focus on specific altcoin trends.

AI tokens, privacy coins, and institutional blockchain initiatives have sparked interest, while Cardano has faced a governance challenge regarding its research funding.

Following President Trump’s declaration that the US and Iran have mostly agreed on a peace deal, Bitcoin bounced back from a one-month low. Markets were reassured by the comment after days of concern about a developing crisis in the Middle East.

As investors turned their attention to riskier assets, the price of Bitcoin rose above $77,000.

In particular, NEAR, Worldcoin, Zcash, ONDO, Morpho and Hyperliquid – all digital assets related to privacy and artificial intelligence – saw significant price increases.

The recovery highlighted the close relationship between bitcoin and geopolitical risk.

Clearly specified conditions regarding sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programs are needed for a final agreement.

Bitcoin Pain From Hawkish Fed Bets

Last week, BTC previously fell below $75,000 and hit its lowest point in about a month.

It subsequently bounced back above $77,000, reflecting a more than 1.5% increase over the past 24 hours, as market participants reacted to indications that the US-Iran conflict may be moving towards a possible negotiated pause.

But the drop in the upper sign comes after a cautionary statement from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that interest rate hikes could be considered if inflation remains high.

The markets reacted quickly.

Investors began to factor in the likelihood of a 25 basis point hike by October 2026, leading to increased pressure on risk assets.

The action reflects a known trend. In an environment characterized by increased real yields and a robust dollar, Bitcoin often experiences downward pressure. This is especially true when investor sentiment is low, and there are concerns about rising energy prices.

Without Ethereum, Altcoins Soar

Signs related to artificial intelligence played a significant role in the market’s recovery.

NEAR protocol experienced a remarkable increase of 14.8% in just 24 hours, with an impressive weekly increase of over 62%. Worldcoin experienced a notable increase of 8.7% today, bringing its weekly growth to over 26%.

Assets related to privacy also trended upward.

Zcash experienced an impressive increase of 8.8% in just 24 hours and almost 28% over the week, placing it as one of the standout performers among large-cap assets.

Other major alternative cryptocurrencies have also bounced back. Ondo experienced an impressive increase of 8.5%, while Morpho saw a notable increase of 7.8%, and Hyperliquid recorded an increase of 6.3% during the same time frame.

Ultimately, the path to recovery depends on moving from mere public statements to a solidified framework.

The primary outstanding matters are likely to involve sanctions relief, the status of Iran’s nuclear initiatives, insurance against further assaults and the enforcement measures related to Hormuz.

Currently, the market is interpreting the recent statement from Trump as a significant sign to ease tensions. Bitcoin rebounded from its one-month low, and altcoins reflected a more optimistic risk-on sentiment.

More profits?

According to TradingView, the price of Bitcoin has remained firmly above $75,000 over the past seven months.

After laying the foundation and positioning itself above $76,200, BTC started a trend of recovery. The $76,500 and $76,600 levels were crossed with an upside advance.

Bulls were able to push prices above the $74,209 low, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the slide from the $78,100 high.

Still, there is activity from sellers close to $77,000. On the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, there is also a negative trendline forming, with resistance at $77,050.

At its current price, Bitcoin has breached the 100-hour simple moving average and is trading above $77,250. It could try to start a new uptrend if the price stays above $77,050.

Near the $77,450 level, which is also the 83.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the $78,100 swing high to the $74,209 low, is where you will see immediate resistance.

Around the $78,000 threshold is the first big hurdle. If the price can break above the $78,000 level of resistance, it could continue to rise.

The price may rise in this case and test the $79,000 resistance level. If prices continue to rise, it could reach $81,500. At $82,000, the bulls may face their next hurdle.

Further declines can be expected for Bitcoin if it fails to break through the $77,450 resistance level. You can get immediate support at around $76,150. The starting point for significant support is around $75,650. Around the $76,000 mark is expected to be the next support level. The $75,000 support level may be approached soon if the price continues to decline.

Currently, $74,200 serves as an important support level; a drop below this threshold could prevent a short-term recovery for BTC.

What other technical readings are showing?

TradingView’s technical analysis overview for the coming week, based on key data from moving averages, oscillators and pivots, showed a neutral sign.

While oscillators managed to indicate a neutral sign, moving averages still pointed to a sell stance.

Over the past month, BTC has continued its downward trajectory after failing to break the resistance level at $82,000, which currently sits 39% below its October peak.

Separately, InvestTech’s algorithmic overall analysis and recommendation for one to six weeks was a weak positive score.

The research said: “Investors have paid higher prices to buy Bitcoin over time, and the token is in an uptrend channel in the short term. Uptrends indicate that the token is experiencing positive development and that buying interest among investors is increasing.”

InvestTech added, “The sign is approaching resistance at $78,300, which could give a negative reaction. However, a break upwards through $78,300 would be a positive signal. The sign is rated as slightly positive technically for the short term.”

Bitcoin ETFs post $1 billion weekly outflows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered their steepest weekly outflows in months, losing a net $1 billion in the week ending May 15, 2026, according to data from SoSoValue — ending a six-week streak of steady inflows that signaled renewed institutional appetite for the cryptocurrency.

The week’s losses were compounded by significant outflows from GBTC, BITB and other funds, with only a handful of products – including Morgan Stanley’s MSBT – seeing modest inflows.

On the last trading day of the week alone, all 11 Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $290.42 million in net outflows, with not a single fund ending in positive territory.

The turnaround followed a strong April, during which spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.97 billion — their best monthly performance of 2026 — as BlackRock’s IBIT led institutional demand.

Despite the weekly setback, the long-term picture remains one of accumulation.

Cumulative net inflows since the products launched in January 2024 still stand at around $58.34 billion, with total assets under management reaching $104.29 billion.

Amid the Bitcoin outflows, altcoin ETFs attracted capital, with investors showing the strongest interest in XRP ETFs at $60.5 million and Solana ETFs at $58.12 million.