‘This Is Not World War III:’ Five Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week – TradingView News

Bitcoin (BTC) enters the first week of March 2026 in a holding pattern as fresh geopolitical tensions escalate.

Bitcoin avoids major volatility as a new Middle East conflict erupts, although sentiment remains cautious.

Long-term BTC price patterns lead to a fresh $45,000 target.

Iran tensions form the week’s macro focus, as analysis rejects the idea of ​​”World War III”.

Inflation risks could limit the duration of US military operations, according to market analysts.

Institutional Bitcoin inflows show early signs of stabilization after months of decline.

Bitcoin survives Iran conflict outbreak – for now

Bitcoin price action resisted a broader selloff despite the Iran conflict playing out during low-liquidity weekend trading conditions.

Data from TradingView shows a trip to near $63,000 was the climax of the initial market reaction before a sustained pullback kicked in.

Now, traders see that events continue to favor crypto market stability.

“If it’s a bloodbath (unlikely imo) then I’d want Bitcoin around $61k-$60k before de-escalation hits the news,” trader CrypNuevo wrote in a thread on X.

CrypNuevo suggested that de-escalation would be a crucial trigger for the markets in the coming days and argued that anything else would be counterproductive for the US government.

“The truth is that this war is not convenient for Donald Trump in a midterm election year, here’s why: A long conflict would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for a long time, causing oil prices to rise, and consequently US CPI inflation to rise. And that won’t happen,” he wrote.

Trader Crypto Tony, meanwhile, saw $62,000 as a potential BTC long entry.

Others warned of repeated bearish price action with the formation of triangle structures as part of an ongoing downtrend.

“$BTC followed the same pattern again and again,” trader BitBull summed up.

“I think there will be a pump above $74K to trap late buyers before the next big dump.”

$45,000 joins bearish BTC price targets

Bearish BTC price predictions remain firmly in place over longer time frames.

A lack of momentum among bulls, which have not even been able to regain nearby support levels, leads to increasingly gloomy market forecasts for 2026.

One trendline now back in focus for independent analyst Filbfilb is calling for a further 50% BTC price dive.

“In every case since inception, a weekly close below the yellow band has resulted in a correction of c.40-50%,” Filbfilb told X followers alongside a chart showing historical price performance.

“Levels around $40-45k for the groups at the moment. A push off around $50k is not impossible, but eventually the price reached the lower band.”

In subsequent discussions, a rescue level for the weekly close emerged, with it still out of reach at $72,000 on Monday.

The $45,000 zone, Cointelegraph reports, is already a popular target for a long-term BTC price floor.

In a post on his Telegram trading channel, Filbfilb added that open trends are also mimicking Bitcoin’s last bear market. Open interest rises while price itself falls, indicating increasing short activity.

Analysis on Iran: “This is NOT World War III”

With little US inflation data available this week, attention will remain focused on the Middle East and broader geopolitical instability.

Events in Iran sent WTI crude prices up 7% on Monday, while Asian stock markets traded lower as tensions emerged globally.

Volatility was palpable as markets tried to digest the implications of a military campaign against Iran that US President Donald Trump said could last up to a month.

“Combat operations are continuing in full force at this time and they will continue until all of our objectives are achieved. We have very strong objectives,” Trump said in a televised address on Sunday.

Crypto markets reined in volatility all weekend, and as TradFi markets bounced back, Bitcoin preserved $65,000 as support.

“Approximately $300 million in long liquidations were triggered when the news broke, a notable but contained figure, especially in relation to the more disorderly unwinding of events seen in early February,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Asia Color” market update.

“The relatively modest magnitude of forced selling suggests that positioning has already materially eased in recent weeks.”

QCP noted that the previous Iran upheaval in June 2025 resulted in only brief BTC price deviations before the then-active uptrend resumed.

“While the scale of this attack is far greater than last year’s, price action may indicate early signs of history repeating itself,” it added.

Trading Resource The Kobeissi letter had similar conclusions about markets’ reactions in general. Oil prices, it argued, were not an indication of panic.

“This is NOT World War 3. Ignore the noise,” it told X followers.

US inflation in focus with oil volatility

However, as Cointelegraph reported earlier, concerns have surfaced about the Iran conflict’s long-term impact on US inflation.

Thanks to risks to oil trade routes, especially the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, consumer price index (CPI) readings in particular are now under scrutiny. February CPI is due to be released on March 11, with more than a month to go until the weekend’s events begin to appear in the numbers.

“A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz would push oil prices above $100 a barrel, according to [to] our analysis, which would imply a rise in US CPI inflation to ~5%,” Kobeissi wrote in an X post on the topic.

Recent US inflation prints have exceeded expectations, some by a significant margin, leaving markets sensitive to any surprise catalysts.

“A jump in oil prices could have major implications for the outlook for inflation,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company emphasized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

“Changes in energy prices can drive fluctuations in headline inflation, with a study by the Federal Reserve estimating that every $10 increase in the price of oil adds 0.20% to headline inflation.”

Mosaic compared the current situation to the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and warned that geopolitics was not the only oil price tailwind at work.

“Energy prices have been a major contributor to a wave of inflation that peaked in 2022 at the highest level in more than 40 years,” it continued.

“While the conflict in the Middle East will be a major catalyst for movement in energy prices, a long period of underinvestment in various energy and industrial commodities has already set the stage for a rally.”

Nevertheless, Kobeissi argued that Trump’s own policy of “eliminating inflation” and lowering gas prices would be an attempt to contain any effects.

“A protracted war with Iran would work in the opposite direction of these key initiatives, especially in the short term during a crucial midterm election year. We think Trump is aiming for a short and quick operation and markets will triumph again as the dust settles,” it concluded.

Higher inflation reduces the chance of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and in turn reduces the prospect of liquidity inflows to crypto and risk assets. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a paltry 4.4% chance of a cut at the Fed’s March meeting.

Bitcoin ETF flows flip bullish

Amid weak BTC price action and acceptance of a new bear market start, institutional inflows are causing a stir for onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

Last week, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw three consecutive days of net inflows exceeding $1 billion. Friday saw only modest net outflows of $27.5 million, according to data from British investment firm Farside Investors.

“Recently, the crypto markets have shown some very specific chain signals that indicate a major shift in how Bitcoin moves among different types of investors,” CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha said in a “Quicktake” blog post on Monday.

Taha said the latest spike in inflows represented the first “meaningful” rally since October of last year, around the time of Bitcoin’s $126,200 all-time high.

“This is the first noticeable wave of accumulation after months of stagnation or decline,” he added.

“Historically, rising ETF demand tends to be constructive for price, while falling demand often corresponds to price weakness.”

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on expectations that institutional Bitcoin investor resolve will only strengthen over time, with a new influx of buyers less interested in selling on short-term price movements.

“Each cycle the weak hands are filtered out. And each cycle, what replaces them is more expensive capital,” explained Eric Jackson, founder of EMJ Capital.

“2017: Retail Sells at $20K. 2021: Funds Sell at $69K. 2025: ETF Allocators Sell at $63K.”

Jackson called the recent exodus of ETF buyers the “purging” of the long-term Bitcoin bull case.