Cryptocurrency traders are no longer using Bitcoin (BTC) profits to buy altcoins as they did in previous bull cycles, raising doubts about whether a broad “altseason” could return.
Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin to altcoin rotation trend has collapsed to its weakest level since 2021.Altcoin capital is increasingly concentrated in fewer projects, slowing down the altseason.
Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has “basically disappeared”
The old altseason trade no longer works the way it did in previous bull cycles, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.
In a Saturday post, Ju said the Bitcoin-to-altcoin rotation trend has “basically disappeared,” citing CryptoQuant data showing that BTC pair altcoin trading volume has collapsed to its weakest levels since 2021.
Aggregate altcoin trading volume for BTC priced pairs. Source: CryptoQuant
The benchmark excludes major altcoins such as Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), BNB (BNB) and Solana (SOL), and instead focuses on mid- and lower-cap altcoins traded on centralized exchanges against Bitcoin.
In simple terms, it shows whether traders are using BTC to buy smaller altcoins.
That flow rose in 2017 and 2021, helping to fuel the alt-seasons. But Young Ju’s chart shows that BTC-pair altcoin volume remains near post-2021 lows, suggesting that Bitcoin is no longer the main source of liquidity for altcoin speculation.
“The era of alts pumping just because BTC pumps may be over,” Young Ju said.
Altcoin capital is now concentrated in fewer tokens
The broader altcoin market has become more concentrated, with the exception of stablecoins.
As of Saturday, the non-BTC, non-stablecoin crypto market was worth about $600 billion. The top 10 non-stablecoin altcoins accounted for about $483 billion of that total, or about 80.5%.
TOTAL crypto market excluding Bitcoin and all stablecoins. Source: TradingView
The number of large market cap altcoins has also fallen sharply since the last bull cycle.
In 2021, about 106 altcoins had more than $1 billion in market value, according to CoinMarketCap’s historical snapshot. That number dropped to around 50 in June 2026.
This echoes Young Ju’s argument that capital no longer spreads across the altcoin market as it did in 2021. The market has not disappeared, but it consists of less major altcoins.
In a separate thread, Young Ju said that “narrative-only altcoins” are losing relevance as the market matures.
Source: X/Ki Young Ju
Young Ju said hype alone is not enough anymore. The stronger areas, he added, are linked to real businesses, income-generating DeFi, stablecoins, tokens of real assets and AI agents.
This suggests that the next altcoin cycle is less about rotation to the entire market and more about finding tokens that applications and users can find across the above fields.
BTC dominance rebound may have “postponed” altseason.
Bitcoin’s crypto market dominance ( BTC.D ) is also showing early signs of a recovery, which could slow a broader altcoin rally.
The BTC.D metric bounced off its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA, purple) and the lower trendline of an ascending channel, both in line with the 58.75% level.
BTC.D weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView
It could rise to the channel’s upper trend line almost 60% if momentum continues.
A move to 60% would mean Bitcoin gaining market share against the rest of crypto. In market terms, this suggests that capital may continue to rotate from altcoins back to BTC, limiting the chances of a short-term altseason.
Analyst Rekt Capital shared a similar view, pointing to a bullish divergence on Bitcoin dominance, suggesting that the “altseason has been postponed.”
BTC.D weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/Rekt Capital
A bullish divergence forms when the metric makes lower lows while its RSI makes higher lows. This often indicates weakening downward momentum and a potential pullback.
Nevertheless, Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin Dominance’s upside may be limited because the benchmark has already lost its macro upside. He said the current bounce could serve as a post-crash relief rally before further downside.
Bitcoin’s dominance could drop to its 200-week EMA at 57% if Rekt Capital’s bearish scenario plays out.
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