Established ‘Sell in May’ philosophy seems broken, and this could be good news for Bitcoin

“Sell in May and go away” is the idea that stocks reliably underperform between May and October, and it describes a market that may no longer exist.

Bloomberg Intelligence data shows that the S&P 500 ETF has closed the May-October period in positive territory in 25 of the past 33 years, with only one negative summer stretch in the past decade.

Custom data cited by Bloomberg shows the cumulative return from holding SPY is only May-October since the ETF’s debut in 1993, at about 171%. That’s real money, just significantly less than the 731% earned by just staying long in November-April.

Despite the seasonal performance difference, the cliché that May automatically means selling does not hold.

The rule that may have stopped working

The logic behind the old adage is that corporate earnings are slow, commercial banks are thinning, and investors are rotating into cash or bonds until the fall.

That playbook worked well enough for decades, built for a market where institutional money moved slowly, and risk appetite followed a predictable rhythm.

Bitcoin spent two years building direct plumbing into traditional portfolio flows. Data from Farside Investors shows that US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $1.5 billion between April 17 and 24, and cumulative net inflows reached about $58.3 billion.

That market structure has folded Bitcoin into the same risk appetite machinery that drives stocks, giving BTC direct exposure to whatever institutional investors are willing to hold.

When institutional money doesn’t reflexively reduce risk in the summer, BTC avoids one of the psychological headwinds that historically hit speculative assets in May.

The Federal Reserve’s own research noted that crypto ETP bid-ask spreads are broadly comparable to those of similarly sized equity ETFs and ETPs, and argued that NAV premiums in crypto funds warrant monitoring as a measure of how interconnected crypto and equity markets have become.

Bitcoin’s May Setup

The case for Bitcoin entering the summer with less headwinds depends almost entirely on what the next six weeks of data deliver.

The Fed’s April 28-29 meeting produced a policy decision and a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on April 29. The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases first quarter GDP and March PCE on April 30.

April payrolls land May 8, April CPI arrives May 12, and the FOMC minutes from the April meeting come May 20, and the next full Fed meeting is June 16-17.

DateEventLast read/setup in the articleWhy Markets CareBTC ReadthroughApr. 28–29Fed meeting + Powell press conferenceFed remains on pause unless data forces a shift Sets the tone for rates, liquidity and how hard the Fed pushes back on cut expectations A patient, data-dependent Fed supports risk appetite and helps BTC avoid a seasonal de-risk narrativeApr. 30Q1 GDP + March PCEGDPNow estimated Q1 growth at 1.2% as of April 21; February PCE was 2.8%, core PCE 3.0% Shows whether growth cleanly slows or slides into stagflation, and whether inflation cools enough to keep hope alive Soft-but-stable growth with contained inflation is constructive for BTC; weak growth plus sticky inflation is a problem May 8April payrolls March labor market was still firm enough to keep the Fed cautious A cooler job pressure could keep rate cut hopes alive; a hot squeeze could push yields higher Cooling labor data without recession fears are bullish for BTC; re-accelerating jobs may weigh on BTC through higher yieldsMay 12April CPIMarch CPI was 3.3% y/y, core CPI 2.6%; Cleveland Fed now released CPI for April was 3.56% y/y CPI is the clearest near-term test of whether inflation is accelerating again A softer pressure helps the risk-on case for BTC; a warmer pressure could revive “Selling in May” through tighter financial conditions May 20 FOMC Minutes Markets are looking for details on how worried officials have been about inflation and cuts. Minutes could amplify or soften the message of Powell’s press conference. payrolls, CPI, and the April minutes This is the point where the May data run confirms or breaks the summer risk-on thesis If macro remains benign, BTC can hold the $72,000-$85,000 range in this window; if inflation and yields rise, downside to $65,000 – $72,000 becomes more plausible

That sequence either confirms that “Sell in May” has lost its macro rationale or rebuilds it this time.

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow put first-quarter growth at 1.2% as of April 21, compared with official GDP of 0.7% for the fourth quarter of 2025.

March CPI came in at 3.3% year-on-year, core CPI at 2.6%, and the energy index rose 10.9% month-on-month. February PCE was 2.8%, and core PCE was 3.0%.

The Cleveland Fed’s transmissions from April 28 put April CPI at 3.56% year-over-year and April PCE at 3.60%. The March Fed SEP raised both 2026 PCE and core PCE medians to 2.7%, and 17 of 19 participants flagged inflation risks as skewed to the upside.

Cross market conditions from the end of April are limited. The 2-year Treasury yield was 3.78%, the 10-year was 4.31%, the VIX was 18.02, and BTC was in the $76,000 zone.

BlackRock’s spring outlook frames the current setup as a mild stagflation trade-off, in which the Fed remains on pause and moves toward gradual easing only if inflation continues to cool or grow moderately.

If April PCE and May CPI print close to or softer than current forecasts, and April payrolls cool without triggering recession fears, the Fed could remain credibly data-dependent.

This keeps the 2-year yield anchored in roughly the 3.65%-3.85% range, VIX below 20, and SPY grinding sideways to higher. Against that backdrop, ETF inflows become the marginal driver for Bitcoin.

Institutional allocators who have built Bitcoin positions through IBIT and peer funds have no obvious seasonal reason to reduce exposure.

Bitcoin could hold a range of $72,000-$85,000 in the June Fed window. If core inflation pushes softer than feared while payrolls miss clean without worrisome growth data, markets may re-price a clearer easing path for the second half of 2025.

A market where SPY was positive in 25 of 33 May-October periods is one in which the behavioral mindset to reduce risk in the summer is weaker each year.

Inflation Revives ‘Sell in May’

If PCE or CPI accelerates again beyond current forecasts, if April payrolls surprise to the upside, or if Powell clarifies at the April 29 press conference that the benchmark for cuts is higher than markets expect, Treasury yields will rebound.

A 2-year yield pushing to or above 4% tightens financial conditions, compresses stock multiples and removes the liquidity backdrop that supported Bitcoin’s ETF-era rally.

In that environment, BTC trades as a high-beta macro asset; a pullback into the $65,000-$72,000 range is plausible, pulled lower by the same risk appetite that carried it higher.

The Philadelphia Fed’s anxious index raised the probability of a second quarter GDP decline to 20.9% in the first quarter survey, a level raised enough to keep recession risk alive as a tail risk.

If GDP surprises to the downside while inflation remains sticky, the Fed faces a classic stagflationary bind in which neither cutting nor hiking solves the problem. That stagflation bond is the version that actually bites.

Bitcoin absorbed Wall Street’s infrastructure and inherited its limitations along with its capital. Seasonal folklore has always been a proxy for the idea that summer is when macro imbalances are priced in, liquidity thins at the margin, and investors reconsider what they want to own.

The next six weeks will test whether the macro regime that carried Bitcoin to record highs can survive inflation data.