Two scenarios if the CLARITY Act passes or fails

XRP price continues to hover around the $1.33 level, reflecting a prolonged consolidation phase. The altcoin is no longer driven simply by utility or network growth. Instead, the focus has shifted to legislation, specifically the proposed Digital Assets Market Clarity Act.

According to analysts, including Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered, the regulatory outcome could act as a binary catalyst for XRP.

Banks are waiting for clear rules, says Brad Garlinghouse

In a recent interview on March 25th, Brad Garlinghouse emphasized how important the legislation could be not just for XRP, but for the broader financial system. He said that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act could open the door for US banks to more fully participate in the cryptocurrency market.

According to Garlinghouse, regulatory clarity represents a key step towards institutional acceptance, as traditional financial institutions are unlikely to engage meaningfully without a clearly defined legal framework.

He added that once rules are set, banks are expected to move more decisively into crypto-related services, potentially accelerating liquidity and product development across the sector.

Garlinghouse also pointed to a possible timeline, suggesting meaningful progress could come by late spring, with some expectations leaning toward a resolution by the end of May, though he acknowledged that legislative timelines remain uncertain.

Also read: Clarity Act 2026 Sparks Crypto Divide Over Stablecoin Yield Ban,

Two divergent paths for the XRP price before Clarity Act 2026

The market is now pricing in two different scenarios.

If the CLARITY Act passes

Should the legislation move forward, analysts expect a significant shift in institutional behavior. Regulatory clarity will remove one of the biggest barriers to entry for hedge funds, pension funds and asset managers.

Estimates suggest that XRP-linked exchange-traded products could attract between $4 billion and $8 billion in inflows. Such a development could trigger a repricing event, pushing XRP well beyond its current range.

On-chain data seems to support this possibility. Currency reserves have declined, while large holders continue to accumulate – often interpreted as positioning ahead of a major catalyst.

If the account is stuck

On the other hand, failure to pass the legislation could prolong XRP’s current stagnation. In that scenario, analysts expect the token to trade within a narrower band, roughly between $1.50 and $2.50.

Without regulatory clarity, institutional adoption in the US is likely to remain muted. Price movement will then depend more on macro trends and overall crypto market sentiment rather than XRP specific developments.

A Decisive Window for Ripple XRP

There are increasing signs that progress is being made.

Rostin Behnam says the CLARITY Act is close to completion, and Ripple leaders are also optimistic that it will be resolved soon. If it moves forward by late spring, the next few weeks could be very important.

If passed, the law could bring more institutional money, banking involvement and new financial products to XRP. If not, XRP may continue to follow the broader crypto market without a strong push higher.

Either way, the next two months could be pivotal for XRP’s future.

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