BTC price bull market losing? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week – TradingView News

Bitcoin BTCUSD starts a new week with the bull market on the line as BTC price predictions vary wildly.

Bitcoin traders are stuck between hope and capitulation BTCUSD returns to its annual open level.

Price is looking at a key “magnet” in the form of an old CME futures gap left over from April.

The loss of a key trend line leads compared to historical bear markets, with a support recovery far away.

Bitcoin looks more like a “leveraged tech stock” as its gold correlation disappears.

Crypto sentiment sets joint 2025 lows, deep within “extreme fear.”

BTC price goes back 2025 gains

Bitcoin fell back to its annual open level through Sunday’s weekly close, falling below $93,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

Reactions from traders were highly mixed, with clear bearish forecasts mixed with hopes for a quick market recovery.

“Binance whales placed large buy orders between $88,500-$92,000 level,” trader BitBull warned in its latest analysis of the exchange order book on X.

“I know a lot of people are asking for a local bottom, but $BTC can sweep the $88K-$90K zone.”

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed price held by a line of bid liquidity overnight, with overall liquidity conditions preparing for the next breakout attempt.

Commentary, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michael van de Poppe saw liquidity as a key ingredient for future price action.

“Ideally I’d like to see a quick move back on $BTC is what I’d prefer to see,” he told X followers on the day.

“We swept the low over the weekend, which means I want to see a higher low created here. If that happens, there are trillions and trillions of short liquidity ready to be taken out.”

Continuing the more hopeful tone, trader Crypto Tony expressed admiration for the rebound BTCUSD the local lows follow.

“The next key level for Bitcoin to reclaim is $98,000, as this will increase the chances of a local bottom,” wrote crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows.

CME term gap just out of reach

A major short-term BTC price target for market participants is now tantalizingly close.

The “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market, originally generated in April, lies just below current local lows.

From around $91,800 to $92,700, the gap has been on the radar ever since BTCUSD began retreating from current all-time highs in mid-October.

The weekly close brought Bitcoin within spitting distance of its close, but at the time of writing it has not filled.

“There is a clear CME gap sitting at $91.9K–$92.5K and you already know how this game works,” trader Hardy told X followers in a post on the topic.

“Whales want their orders filled before the next leg. Expect the dip, embrace the volatility and brace for the bounce once that gap is taken. Textbook move load.”

Hardy referred to the market’s habit of “filling” futures gaps, which occur on weekends and have historically acted as short-term magnets for price. The gap in April is something of an anomaly, remaining untouched for more than half a year.

“The 92k region also coincides with an unfilled CME gap, increasing the chance of a near-term technical bounce if tested,” trading resource QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Asia Color” market update on the day.

“Yet, as seen over the past few weeks, tight overhead inventories could limit the strength of any rebound.”

Major trend line breakdown causes the bear market misery

However, the CME gap is far from the only key level for traders this week.

In a rare departure, BTCUSD has now given up its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) as support.

The latest weekly candle close has left price well below the 50-week SMA, which currently sits around $102,850.

The phenomenon has not gone unnoticed, with X trading account The Swing Trader highlighting the unusual nature of price’s treatment of what is normally a solid support line.

“And this is very important because Bitcoin has never lost the 50-week MA and was still in a bull cycle,” it said in video analysis.

BTC price has only lost the 50-week trendline four times in its history, cementing the move as one typically associated with bear markets. No weekly candles have closed below it since March 2023.

“Every single cycle the 50-week MA holds for four years and then we finally lose it,” The Swing Trader wrote, describing Bitcoin as “technically breaking down.”

QCP wrote that the loss of the trendline “reinforces a medium-term bearish bias,” but added that a bearish trend reversal was hanging on even lower supports at $88,000 and $74,500.

“For now, crypto’s bull cycle hangs in the balance. A short-term bounce may come, but the path of least resistance remains lower,” it concluded.

Considering the exponential (EMA) equivalent of the 50-week SMA, the situation is probably even worse.

As noted by trader Jelle, the “cloud” formed by the 50-week SMA and EMA has not failed as support since then. BTCUSD trading at $22,000.

“Trend officially lost,” he wrote.

Crypto differs from risk-asset trend

On the macro side, commentary turned to crypto’s unusual behavior compared to the broader risk-asset environment.

Amid talk of Japan enacting a massive economic stimulus as part of an overall global liquidity boost, equity futures were “completely unaffected” by the weekend’s crypto slump, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote.

“Even as crypto has lost -$100B since Friday, US stock market futures are GREEN. Meanwhile, gold opened just above $4,100/oz and yields are rising,” it wrote in an X post.

The latest action continues a status quo already in place – crypto, unlike stocks, failed to celebrate the reopening of the US government last week.

Kobeissi’s data showed the paradoxical impact of what should be good news on crypto market performance during October and November.

“The isolated nature of the -25% crypto downturn further supports our view: This is a leveraged and liquidation-based crypto ‘bear market,'” it wrote, describing Bitcoin as a “leveraged technology stock.”

“A Bottom Forms When Market Structure Is Reestablished.”

With the correlation between Bitcoin and gold “essentially zero,” analysis of large-cap tech stocks instead holds the key to understanding crypto volatility.

“Bitcoin’s correlation with US tech stocks has rarely been higher: The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index hit ~0.80, the highest since 2022,” Kobeissi wrote.

“This is also the 2nd highest reading over the past 10 years. Correlation has remained positive over the past 5 years, except for brief periods in 2023.”

The week’s macroeconomic data releases, meanwhile, focus on employment data — readings that have been conspicuously absent during the U.S. government shutdown.

Thanks in part to this lack of data, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets are now unconvinced that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% at its next meeting on December 10.

Extreme fear in the driver’s seat

In a sign of how little the average trader believes in a crypto market comeback, sentiment towards both Bitcoin and altcoins has collapsed.

The latest figures from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index confirm that sentiment is now lower than at any point since late February.

Then, as now, the index set a 2025 low of just 10/100 — deep inside its “extreme fear” bracket. By contrast, just six weeks ago, it measured 74/100, at the point of “extreme greed”.

In comments, trader Daan Crypto Trades compared the atmosphere to the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in 2022, towards the end of the last crypto bear market.

“This measure is not actionable in any way. It can sit in greed for months while markets continue to rumble, just as it can sit at the fear levels for an extended period,” he wrote on X.

“But it’s still interesting to see how quickly things can change from greed to fear and vice versa. Especially in crypto things can turn very quickly as we all know.”

Cointelegraph recently reported on how crowd sentiment can provide insights into crypto market volatility.

Now research platform Santiment sees a return to interest in Bitcoin as a potential bull signal in the making.

“Although not a guaranteed crypto bottom signal, the probabilities of a market reversal increase significantly when social dominance rises for Bitcoin,” it wrote on X Sunday along with proprietary data.

“During Friday’s dip below $95K, booking rates hit a 4-month high, indicating severe retail panic and FUD.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.